Death and Taxes
Republicans are on the verge of a tax cut they’ve sought for decades, and it couldn’t fall more neatly into the “for the rich” narrative.
Repealing the federal tax on large estates is on the table for inclusion in the GOP’s reconciliation package, which they’re selling as a boon to farmers and small business owners. But they’re running into opposition, and not just from the blue corner.
Financial advisers the wealthy pay to keep down their taxes don’t want to see a lucrative revenue stream dry up, but that’s maybe saying the quiet part out loud. Industry group Finseca claims repealing the 40% tax wouldn’t survive long-term, and would lull the wealthy into a false sense of complacency in their estate planning.
Some 200 groups representing car dealers, farm interests, construction companies, funeral directors, plastics manufacturers, alcoholic beverage distributors, dude ranchers, and grocers disagree, and they’re lining up behind Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who says large ranches and other businesses back home in South Dakota may be worth more than the $28 million married couples can pass on tax-free.
He’s got 46 other Republicans on his side — including wealthy newbie Sens. Dave McCormick (Pa.), Bernie Moreno (Ohio), Jim Justice (W.Va.) and Tim Sheehy (Mont.) — all of whom supplanted Democrats.
Vice President JD Vance — whose job includes breaking tied Senate votes — co-sponsored the bill while a senator.
But the biggest hurdle for Republicans is math. Repealing it would cost the government $300 billion over the next decade, estimated Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, versus extending the existing law — which at present, only covers 0.1% of Americans, according to the IRS. Read More
The idea still has to compete with others Trump pitched that would equal more savings for more Americans. And choosing offsets to cover those cuts is another topic for which we’ve got an update.
A big benefit of government work is the benefits, but one fed’s benefit is another Republican’s tax cut pay-for.
Federal health and retirement plans could be on the chopping block to help paper over the cost of Trump’s tax cuts. Public-sector unions are cobbling together a strategy to defend early retirement supplemental funding, pension payouts, and civil service protections, while benefits advisers say they’re experiencing high call volumes from workers contemplating retiring early or working later.
On the heels of Musk’s cuts to the federal workforce, benefits counselor Tammy Flanagan maybe inadvertently highlighted part of the point. “They’re kind of eroding what it means to be a federal worker,” she told labor reporter Austin Ramsey. “It seems like working in the federal government will be no different than working in the private sector.” Read More
Spring Pilgrimage
Springtime in Washington brings the annual pilgrimage down Pennsylvania Avenue and up Capitol Hill, where Trump’s cabinet can expect a frigid reception — and we’re not talking about the A/C.
Most department heads across typical administrations come rattling their beggars’ cups, and that’s still the case for Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem — among the first to testify this week on the fiscal 2026 budget outline the White House sent Congress on Friday. Others, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and FBI Director Kash Patel, will come brandishing axes.
For many, it’ll be the first time they’ve faced lawmakers since Trump and Musk took a thresher to the federal bureaucracy, and Democrats will surely seize those televised moments to score political points on the administration over subsequent disruptions in federal services and dwindling economic performance.
Expect hot seats, frosty exchanges, and long days. It’s budget season in Washington.
Jonathan Tamari has the full preview for BGOV subscribers in today’s Congress Tracker.
How Well Do You Know Washington: EO Edition
You already know who’s the undisputed king of first-100-days executive orders. It’s the current president, whose tally is so far ahead, the rest of the pack isn’t even visible. Trump issued 143 executive orders, some of which are being challenged in court.
Today’s mini quiz: What’s a more typical amount of orders, proclamations, and other presidential directives at the start of a term?
A) 46
B) 63
C) 84
D) 112
Scroll down for the answer.
Eye On The Economy
If there’s one trade deficit that Trump’s closed with his tariff regime, it’s exporting disruption, which is starting to show up in factories across the globe.
Asian and European factories are buying fewer materials to produce their goods, according to numbers out Friday. Reports earlier in the week showed US manufacturing shrank by the most in five months, while Chinese factories slipped to their deepest drop-off since December 2023.
The data show tariffs are shutting off incentives for trade between nations that account for more than 40% of global GDP, and few economies are skirting the effects one month into Trump’s new world order. Read More
The data raise a question for Jerome Powell — if thousands of businesses can’t foresee input costs, or tax rates on their exports, then how can the Fed forecast the economy’s trajectory?
The resulting squeeze on consumers — plus retaliation by other countries — could put a dent in output, hiring and investment. And those outcomes point in opposite directions when it comes to setting interest rates.
It illustrates how Trump’s trade war turned global commerce into a giant black box — and not by accident. Bessent said “strategic uncertainty” gives the US an advantage in negotiating trade deals. But for business owners, it’s anything but strategic. Read More
Also on the economy:
- Trump insisted he won’t fire Powell during a Sunday interview on NBC’s Meet the Press. But a Fed meeting this week that’s expected to end with rates holding steady may test the president’s patience. Read More
- Trump’s willing to lower tariffs on China “at some point,” he said. Read More
- Wondering how Wall Street rebounded with the biggest tariff threats still over the horizon? So is Wall Street. Read More
- Trump announced Sunday he plans to impose a 100% tariff on foreign films. Read More
- Trump suggests some deals could be announced this week. Read More
Did You Ace the Quiz?
Combine the executive orders, proclamations, and other presidential issuances, and Trump’s first 100 days produced 219 directives. For a sense of what’s more typical, our analysis team looked at the documents produced by the four preceding administrations and found there really isn’t a typical tally. So whichever option you chose, you were correct:
A) 46 = the number issued by President George W. Bush
B) 63 = the total from President Barack Obama’s first 100 days
C) 84 = Trump’s first term’s opener
D) 112 = former President Joe Biden’s orders, proclamations and other opening directives.
Subscribers, get the details in this BGOV OnPoint
Before You Go
More news you should know as Washington’s workday begins:
- Votes on tariffs are becoming a political liability for Republicans thanks to Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), whose staff found everything in statute and procedure allowing a single senator to force a floor vote. Leadership didn’t go for it initially, Kaine told Bloomberg Government. Now, after successfully rebuking Trump over Canada tariffs and a vote waiting in the wings on human rights in El Salvador, it’s become the primary method of retaliation, Lillianna Byington reports. Read More
- The trade war also isn’t helping Trump’s party with young voters hooked on fast fashion and TikTok. Read More
- DOGE asked the Supreme Court for a bite at Social Security information, escalating a privacy fight that could affect millions. Read More
- Pivoting the IRS to help deport immigrants could leave blind spots open for tax cheats, former tax officials told Erin Slowey. Read More
- Trump’s threat to strip Harvard‘s tax-exempt status raised the eyebrows of his own former IRS commissioner, who said the process would take years and need a judge’s approval. Read More
- The Army and the president will share a birthday parade in Washington next month. Read More
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