Online prediction markets’ skyrocketing popularity has led to scrutiny of potential insider trading, early moves from regulators and industry to establish guardrails, and now debates on Capitol Hill.
The platforms, led by US-based Kalshi and offshore-based Polymarket, let users wager on the outcomes of real-world events from sports to financial markets. In April, more than $25 billion in total volume was traded on the two platforms.
But precisely timed, prominent bets on a ceasefire in Iran, the Israel-Gaza war, and the US capture of the Venezuelan president have spurred concerns about the use of classified information to profit on the ...