House Democrats may have lost the mid-decade redistricting battle. They still have the edge in the campaign for control of the chamber at the midpoint of President Donald Trump’s second term.
The US Supreme Court sharply limiting race-based redistricting and the Virginia Supreme Court voiding a Democratic gerrymander have made that task harder, but Democrats have history and political winds on their side. They control 215 House seats, three short of a majority, and the out-of-power party has gained House seats in 18 of 20 midterm elections since the end of World War II.
Trump’s poor public image is more of a drag on Republicans than redistricting is on Democrats, conventional wisdom holds. His approval rating has dipped below 40%, among the lowest for a modern president in a midterm election environment. It’s comparable to George W. Bush’s standing in November 2006, when Democrats won control of the House and Senate.
High inflation and rising gas prices amid a conflict with Iran have amplified the public dissatisfaction with Trump. His standing was already a big reason why Democrats overperformed in most elections since he returned to the presidency 16 months ago, regularly winning larger vote percentages in their districts than Kamala Harris did. Democrats have flipped 30 state legislative seats from Republican control and haven’t lost one of their own to the GOP.
Democrats currently have a six-point advantage in a generic congressional ballot test, according to Nate Silver’s “Silver Bulletin” newsletter. Data journalist G. Elliott Morris said Sunday that Democrats need to win the nationwide House vote by four percentage points to win control of the chamber.
“Republicans have gained a new structural advantage through redistricting,” the nonpartisan Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter wrote Monday. “We continue to rate Democrats as favored to win control of the House, but they are no longer overwhelming favorites.”
It’s hard to quantify how much of an advantage redistricting has given Republicans because some redrawn districts are highly competitive and others are subject to litigation. National trends in the coming months and the quality of candidates will also shape the outcome.
In North Carolina, a one-seat GOP gain is predicated on unseating Rep. Don Davis (D) and reelecting Rep.
Republican-led Southern states that dismantle heavily Black Democratic districts run the risk of antagonizing Black voters and creating less politically stable districts that could backfire against the GOP.
In South Carolina, the Republican legislature is considering whether to splinter the Black-plurality and strongly Democratic 6th District now held by Rep.
Democrats could still win seats in states where they suffered redistricting defeats.
In Virginia, Democrats are unlikely to win an appeal to the US Supreme Court but are waging takeover bids against Republican Reps.
Texas Republicans aren’t assured of the five-seat gain they anticipated last summer, when they ignited the redistricting war. Just two districts appear safely Republican. GOP nominees would need to unseat Democrats Reps.
At the same time, Democrats are putting up a serious fight in an open Hispanic-majority district in metropolitan San Antonio that favored Trump by 10 points in 2024.
Newly drawn Republican maps in other states face challenges.
In Florida, where Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) signed legislation approving a new map that could elect up to four additional Republicans, Democrats and voting-rights groups invoked voter-approved state constitutional language that says “no apportionment plan or district shall be drawn with the intent to favor or disfavor a political party or an incumbent.”
Florida Republicans argue that amendment, which includes race-based requirements preventing a diminution of minority voting power, is now invalid after the US Supreme Court’s ruling last month in Louisiana v. Callais.
Even if the courts uphold the new DeSantis map, the GOP isn’t a sure bet for a four-seat pickup.
Democrats could put in play some of the eight districts that favored Trump by between 9 and 15 percentage points in 2024, a margin that isn’t tantamount to GOP safety in this political environment.
They include the 7th District, which stretches from the Orlando area to Daytona Beach and is held by Rep.
In March, Florida Democrat Emily Gregory flipped a state House district that Trump won by 13 points.
“We take nothing for granted, and it’s the reason why we need to continue to perform effectively,” Rep.
In Alabama, the May 19 primary is proceeding under the 2024 election map. But Republicans are seeking to replace that court-ordered map, which includes two Black-majority districts, with one that has just one Black-majority district. Gov. Kay Ivey (R) last week signed legislation approving a new primary if the US Supreme Court allows the legislature’s preferred map to be used.
Democrats say this violates a 2022 constitutional amendment that says any legislation affecting how a general election is held must be passed and take effect at least six months before the election.
Even as Democratic leaders remain bullish on winning the House in November, they’ve vowed to prolong the redistricting war with Republicans through the 2028 election, including in Democratic-led states like New York and Colorado.
“We will bury the GOP gerrymandering scheme with a massive Democratic redistricting counteroffensive,” Minority Leader
— With assistance from
To contact the reporter on this story:
To contact the editors responsible for this story: