Rep. Scott Perry last year led the most hard-right faction in Congress and built a reputation as one of the most conservative and combative figures in the House. But the Pennsylvania Republican represents a relatively moderate district, and Democrats hope to make him pay as he faces a competitive re-election this year.
“Perry is the most extreme MAGA member of Congress who could actually lose,” said an opening ad from Janelle Stelson, a former news anchor who is one of seven Democrats lining up to take him in the central Keystone State district.
Perry is one of a handful of hardline House Republicans whom Democrats are targeting in competitive districts, hoping to turn their prominence on the right into a liability with moderate voters at home.
Fellow Freedom Caucus members Reps. Anna Paulina Luna (Fla.) and Lauren Boebert (Colo.) are facing similar attacks from Democrats who say their uber-conservative views don’t reflect their districts. Their challengers want to use the Freedom Caucus’ headline-grabbing floor tactics to convince moderate voters that these members are sowing chaos in the House, while failing to address the everyday concerns back home.
The outcome of those races will have significant impacts. With House Republicans holding a tiny majority, a shift in a few seats could swing control of the House to Democrats. And if the GOP keeps the House, the continued presence of those lawmakers could further push the chamber to the right.
A Changing District
Perry is perhaps the most high-profile House hard-liner facing a serious Democratic challenge.
He was a leader in the push to overturn the 2020 presidential election result and he’s consistently voted against compromises to keep the government open. Federal prosecutors have sought access to his phone records over his election denial efforts. Two top Democratic challengers—Stelson and former Marine fighter pilot Mike O’Brien—both cited the attempt to overturn an election as the driving force for their campaigns.
O’Brien, 42, noted that his 2020 presidential vote was one of the millions Perry tried to erase when he pushed to dismiss Pennsylvania’s electoral votes on Jan. 6. He cast his run as a bid to “reclaim freedom, to reclaim patriotism.”
Washington Democrats see O’Brien and Stelson, 63, as the top early contenders in a crowded primary.
But Shamaine Daniels, a Harrisburg city councilwoman who lost to Perry in 2022, is again seeking the Democratic nomination, saying national donors now know who Perry is and are paying closer attention this time around. She said her campaign was about more than just Jan. 6—and instead prioritized local concerns like housing and food safety.
“The quality of life here needs to be improved and we don’t have a congressperson who’s a partner in helping us,” Daniels, 45, said in an interview.
Perry’s legal troubles have sapped his campaign account. He had $541,000 on hand as of his most recent report, and $145,000 in debts—most of them to a white-collar attorney. That’s in addition to the $190,000 he spent on the same attorney last year for either legal services or past debts.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter in December shifted its forecast for the district from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican,” in part citing Stelson’s name ID after decades on the air in the region.
Democratic insiders in Pennsylvania and Washington point out that the area is slowly trending leftward as more liberal voters move from bigger cities. It still leans right, but it’s not a hard-right bastion.
Stelson and O’Brien both face questions about their residency. Stelson lives in the neighboring district, though she says she’d move if she wins. O’Brien moved to the district late last year.
Other Democrats running are Army veterans Rick Coplen and Bob Forbes, businessman John Broadhurst, and Blake Lynch, a former executive at Harrisburg public media outlet WITF, though in the eyes of Washington Democrats, all have to make up ground on the other trio. Republican John Henry Newman is challenging Perry in the GOP primary.
But Perry has survived several competitive races. Republicans say his record has been litigated, and that voters keep sending him back to Washington.
“Person to person in the district will tell you they respect Scott Perry,” said Matt Beynon, Perry’s campaign spokesman. “Unlike so many politicians he is honest with them, he is upfront with them.”
Abortion a Concern
In Luna’s Florida Gulf Coast district, her challenger, Democrat Whitney Fox, is a young mother like Luna, but their similarities pretty much end there.
Luna’s first year in office has been marked by a focus on so-called culture war issues. She’s a member of the House Oversight Committee and has vocally supported its impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden.
While Luna didn’t vote against GOP leadership once in 2023, she often associates herself with Freedom Caucus members who shook up the party by ousting ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy and threatening government shutdowns for extreme spending cuts.
“People are smart, and they see the chaos that is happening in DC right now,” Fox said. “And they see that Anna Paulina Luna is not just a part of that chaos, but is leading the way as part of the Freedom Caucus.”
Fox’s campaign to unseat Luna will focus on abortion and economic issues in the 13th district. Florida’s inflation rate sits well above the US average, with residents citing high rent and difficulty meeting their day-to-day needs.
Fox’ will be highlighting Luna’s noted anti-abortion stance, including the lawmaker directly referring to herself as a “pro-life extremist” last cycle, as Florida voters vote on the same ballot whether to enshrine constitutional protections for the procedure.
Luna, for her part, is betting that culture war issues will resonate with enough voters to once again elect her.
“Border is the No. 1 issue in the country,” she recently told BGOV. She also noted has already knocked on 50,000 doors and made 90,000 phone calls and has not seen her opponents “do anything.”
Lawmakers like Luna see their stark opposition to Biden’s border policy as a winning message for voters concerned about the high rate of migration. A recent Pew Research Center study found a greater increase in unauthorized migration to Florida than any other state over the past several years.
Safe Move
Democrats scared one member of the Freedom Caucus out of her own district already.
Boebert announced in December said she wouldn’t seek another term in her Western Slope district with the aim of keeping her current seat in GOP hands. She’s instead running for the more GOP-friendly eastern Colorado seat currently held by retiring Rep. Ken Buck (R).
Boebert won re-election in 2022 by just 546 votes to Democratic challenger Adam Frisch, the narrowest House race in the country.
“Without a doubt running against someone that is so ineffectual and so extreme makes the path a little bit easier,” said Frisch, a former Aspen city councilor who has raised about $11.5 million so far for his bid to be the Democratic nominee for the district again in November.
Boebert said last week that she switched districts in part to give Republicans across the district “a fair fight” in November.
“We have an opportunity now to absolutely secure that seat and keep it red and stop the Hollywood money that was pouring” into her race, Boebert said at a primary debate in northeastern Colorado.
Boebert’s apparent vulnerability before her switch had attracted at least two primary challengers: Grand Junction attorney Jeff Hurd and Aspen financial adviser Russ Andrews.
“I didn’t believe that she could beat Adam in the general election,” Andrews said. “I’ve told her that face to face. Obviously, she and her team came to that same conclusion.”
Boebert’s absence complicates Democrats’ efforts to flip her current district, especially if a more traditional Republican wins the June primary. After Boebert’s switch, Cook moved their rating of the race from “Toss Up” to “Lean Republican.”
Former state legislator and US Senate candidate Ron Hanks and Colorado State Board of Education member Stephen Varela also jumped into the race after Boebert’s exit.
“If we nominate a serious and hardworking Republican, we have a pretty good shot of keeping the seat,” Hurd said.
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