A string of legislative flips is fueling Democratic optimism heading into November—and pushing the party to test a broader map in 2026.
Democrats won two special elections in Florida last month, including a state House seat
The races had little immediate impact but reinforced a broader pattern. Since Trump’s return to the White House, Democrats have notched special election wins and overperformances, flipping 30 state legislative seats to Republicans’ zero.
Now, national Democrats are trying to convert those gains into a wider battlefield, putting deeper-red districts into play—including those Trump carried by double digits in 2024.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has identified more than 40 Republican-held districts it says are “in play” for the 2026 election, including 12 where they’ve identified likely nominees who will receive organizational and fundraising support through its “Red to Blue” program. All 12 districts backed Trump in 2024, including two in Virginia that could become more favorable to Democrats after redistricting.
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- Tennessee’s 5th District (Trump +18): Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder has raised more than $1.2 million in his bid to unseat Rep.
Andy Ogles (R). - Arizona’s 2nd District (Trump +15): Former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez is seeking a rematch against Rep.
Eli Crane (R), who underperformed Trump in 2024 and won reelection by 9 points. - North Carolina’s 11th District (Trump +9.5): Businessman and farmer Jamie Ager is challenging Rep.
Chuck Edwards (R), where Trump’s margin narrowed from 11 points in 2020 to 9.5 points in 2024.
“These seats are in play because we put them in play,” said
Momentum Limits
Brandishing Trump’s lagging approval rating and historical trends favoring the out-of-power party in midterm elections, Democrats hope to stretch a narrow map into deeper-red terrain.
In 2024, no Democrat in Congress won a district Trump carried by at least 10 percentage points.
That gap highlights the challenge: translating state-level momentum into federal wins.
Special elections provide an early read on the environment, but are an imperfect guide. If one party consistently outperforms its previous presidential showing, “that probably says something about the environment,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball. But he cautioned that lower turnout means “this should give us some pause about overinterpreting” results.
Taken together with polling and Trump’s approval rating, the indicators are broadly aligned, Kondik said. “It’s helpful when a lot of the different arrows are all pointing in the same direction.”
Democrats are leaning into that alignment, arguing it reflects a shift in voter sentiment.
“The overperformance across the country in special election after special election is a trend that can’t be ignored,” DCCC spokesperson Aidan Johnson said. “Voters are looking for independent and authentic candidates. [It’s] why Democrats are going to take back the House in November.”
Even so, House races impose limits. Contests are increasingly nationalized, and the partisan baseline often outweighs candidate-specific advantages, making it harder to replicate 2018, when Democrats flipped some Trump-won districts.
April 15 fundraising reports will offer an early gauge of whether Democrats in red districts can keep pace, a test of viability.
“There may be no national investment in some of these races yet, but some candidates will raise significant amounts of money and run credible campaigns on their own,” Kondik said.
It’s too early to assess where the national parties will play, and Kondik said overextending carries risks: In 2020, both parties misjudged the map, and Republicans outperformed expectations. Spending too heavily in long-shot districts can come at the expense of seats that determine control of the House.
Ground Game
In North Carolina, Ager is emphasizing his rural background and local concerns, particularly disaster recovery. His campaign is aimed at winning independents and some Republican voters while driving turnout in Asheville and Buncombe County.
In Virginia’s 1st District, Democrat Shannon Taylor, who is opposing Rep.
“This district has been moving in our direction for a few cycles now,” Taylor said.
In Texas’s 23rd District, Democrat Katy Padilla Stout, who will face Brandon Herrera (R) after Rep. Tony Gonzales dropped out
She said her campaign has gained traction since the primary, with 6,000 individual donors and more than $200,000 raised since her last filing.
Republicans See Headwinds
Whether those efforts translate into competitive races will depend on outside spending. Early movement by GOP-aligned groups into these districts would signal concern, while Democratic investment would suggest confidence that the expanded map is more than aspirational.
Some Republican strategists say they are watching but not overreacting.
“There is definitely a sense that Republicans are facing headwinds and need to respond,” said Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas-based GOP consultant.
Others say the environment remains volatile. “This doesn’t feel like a typical midterm,” said Chuck Coughlin, an Arizona-based consultant who has worked with Republicans. “There’s a lot of noise—gas prices, immigration, international issues—shaping voter sentiment in ways that are harder to predict.”
The outlook could shift. Gas prices could fall, Trump’s approval rating could improve, and Republican turnout could spike on Election Day. But for now, the conditions Democrats are counting on appear to be in place.
“If a wave is coming, you want as many surfboards in the water as possible,” Kondik said.
— With assistance from
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