Mitch McConnell is about to become something rare and unpredictable on Capitol Hill: a powerhouse with nothing to lose.
As the longtime Senate Republican leader steps down from his post, he’s shedding responsibility for keeping his conference together and representing the GOP more widely. Few think he’ll run for re-election, freeing him from personal political worry. But he’ll carry weight after 18 years as a GOP pillar — potentially making McConnell a wild card during the incoming Trump administration, at least on some topics.
He’ll be “liberated,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.). He can express “his own personal points of view, and I think that he’ll be able to find that refreshing.”
One early example: McConnell appeared to be among the Republicans who could have been an obstacle to attorney general nominee Matt Gaetz. He said it was a “good thing” Thursday when Gaetz withdrew.
McConnell is still almost certain to support the vast majority of the agenda put forward by President-elect Donald Trump. He’s a conservative who has spent decades focused on what’s best for the GOP. He pledged in a news conference in early November to “do everything I can to help the new administration be successful.”
But McConnell has also made his disdain for Trump plain, and there’s some history of GOP giants picking their spots to defy Trump in the closing stages of their careers. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) has been a prominent critic, and the presidential nominee before him, the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), showed his maverick side when he dramatically sunk the push to repeal the Affordable Care Act.
No one expects the taciturn McConnell to mirror the irascible McCain. But the Kentuckian, like McCain, believes deeply in international alliances and US strength abroad, setting up one significant contrast with Trump and the populist, isolationist wing of the GOP.
“It may seem old-fashioned to some but I’m still a Reagan Republican who thinks that America’s role in the world is absolutely indispensable,” McConnell said on Nov. 6.
Picking Spots
McConnell pledged then to focus on defense and foreign policy as he starts the final chapter of his Senate career, one that follows health concerns that slowed him, though he appeared invigorated after Republicans’ electoral victories.
He “wants to make sure that we do not become isolationist as a party, and that we continue to be the leader of the democratic world,” Romney said.
Still, he added that McConnell supported Trump’s first-term agenda, and that he expects the outgoing leader will again do so “pretty consistently.”
“I don’t think ‘clashing’ is the right word,” Romney said, “but I think they’ll have a dialogue about what is in America’s interest.”
McConnell’s influence could reach beyond words.
He announced Thursday that he’ll chair the Appropriations Committee’s defense subcommittee, giving him power over military funding and policy. His replacement as GOP leader, Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) is a close ally, so McConnell will still have the ear of the party’s top senator. The Senate institutionalist will also chair the Rules Committee. He has repeatedly signaled support for Senate traditions, such as the filibuster, the rule requiring 60 votes for nearly all major legislation, which itself could be an impediment to an aggressive Trump agenda.
And he could be a crucial vote on some of Trump’s most controversial nominees on national defense, including Fox News host Pete Hegseth, tapped for Defense Secretary, and former Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii for Director of National Intelligence.
McConnell allies predict that he’ll be strategic in how he uses his voice and vote. A tactician to his core, he’s unlikely to reflexively oppose Trump.
“It’s very unlikely that Mitch McConnell will tell people either everything he knows or everything he’s thinking,” said former Missouri Republican Sen. Roy Blunt, a onetime member of GOP leadership.
After all, McConnell is a party man.
“Occasionally bucking his party in high profile ways was John McCain’s brand in a way that has never been Mitch McConnell’s brand,” said Molly Reynolds, a Brookings Institution fellow who studies Congress. “As leader he was someone who really prioritized party victories and the idea of what was best for the party.”
Out of Step?
McConnell, however, prominently defied the Trump-aligned portion of his party earlier this year when he crusaded to boost aid to Ukraine, something fiercely opposed by Vice President-elect JD Vance and others.
But in some cases McConnell could be swimming against the tide. Many newer members of the GOP conference are more aligned with Trump than with old-guard Republicans like McConnell.
“He’s become increasingly out of step” with most Senate Republicans “who are determined to do whatever Donald Trump wants,” said Jim Manley, a former senior aide to Democratic Senate Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), who clashed sharply with McConnell
Manley counted himself “skeptical” that McConnell would be a bulwark against Trump, pointing to the senator’s vote to acquit Trump in the impeachment that followed the Jan. 6, 2021 riot at the US Capitol.
“He had a chance to fulfill a crucial role and he failed,” Manley said.
There are few recent precedents for someone as high-ranking as McConnell giving up that power while remaining in Congress, though there is one example across the Capitol: Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) remains in office despite ceding her longtime leadership role.
Pelosi has voted as a loyal Democrat, but also flexed her muscles to help shove President Joe Biden out of the presidential race earlier this year, showing how a party stalwart can still — at times — exert their will.
McConnell may follow her footsteps and say things party leaders can’t, Blunt said.
“He’ll be influential,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). “He’s worked a lifetime to earn the respect of his colleagues on these issues — and when he speaks, people listen.”
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