Don’t Misread Paxton’s Big Texas Win. It’s a Gift for Democrats

May 27, 2026, 8:19 PM UTC

Republicans have long dominated statewide politics in Texas, and Democrats have spent years mistaking demographic change and massive fundraising hauls for actual electoral realignment.

But if there was ever a plausible path for a Democrat to win statewide in Texas, it would require a nearly perfect political storm: a nominee capable of appealing to independents and moderate Republicans, a favorable national environment for Democrats, and a Republican opponent carrying enough baggage to make even some GOP voters uncomfortable.

The newly settled Senate race between Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico may be the closest Democrats ...

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