Election results Tuesday underscored the political power of abortion rights, even in conservative states, sending a warning to Republicans and encouragement to Democrats ahead of the 2024 election.
The off-year election also produced major Democratic victories in Kentucky, Virginia and Pennsylvania — handing the party a significant lift and a counterpoint to rising doubts about President Joe Biden and his re-election prospects.
The outcome is likely to resonate most forcefully into 2024 came from Ohio, where abortion rights supporters succeeded in a referendum adding a right to abortion to the state constitution, despite Ohio’s conservative politics.
The vote — which wasn’t even close — was the latest in a string of political victories for Democrats and their allies in the aftermath of the US Supreme Court decision last year overturning Roe v. Wade and the constitutional right to abortion.
In a state that has trended so far right it’s no longer a presidential battleground, the result affirms that abortion rights is a rare issue that can rally both hardcore liberals and moderate voters — a potent combination for Democrats, and one that Republicans have struggled to overcome.
Abortion also played a role in Democratic gains in Virginia, Kentucky and Pennsylvania.
It all but assures that Democrats will continue putting the issue at the center of their campaigns for president and Congress next year, including in Ohio, which will host one of the country’s most critical Senate races.
“The American people know that the fight for abortion rights is a fight for freedom,” Rep. Katherine Clark (D-Mass.), the second-ranking House Democrat, wrote Tuesday night on X, formerly known as Twitter. “In Ohio. In every state. In every zip code.”
The elections provided a Democratic boost at a perilous moment for President Joe Biden. Recent polls have shown deep dissatisfaction with his presidency and he has fallen behind former President Donald Trump in several key swing states, recent surveys suggest, despite Trump’s own unpopularity.
“Across the country tonight, democracy won and MAGA lost,” Biden wrote on X.
Conclusions from Tuesday’s votes, of course, come with caveats. Off-year state elections lack the media fanfare and attention-grabbing advertising that shape presidential contests. They don’t draw as many casual voters and the president isn’t directly on the ballot.
Still, the results offer one of the broadest gauges of public sentiment a year before voters will decide on the presidency, Senate, and House.
Here are some early conclusions based on the results Tuesday night:
Abortion Boosts Democrats
The politics around the end of Roe v. Wade have fueled Democrats and vexed Republicans ever since the Supreme Court ended the constitutional right to abortion in 2022. Ohio is just the latest example.
Democrats have used the court decision to power political action from affluent suburbs to deep red bastions, such as Kansas, while Republicans have often fumbled around the issue, struggling to develop a unified policy position.
The Ohio referendum, known as Issue 1, will affirmatively place the right to abortion in the state constitution. Supporters racked up major gains even in places that voted heavily for Trump in 2020 — yet another sign of the issue’s political and policy power.
With nearly 90% of the vote counted in Warren County, outside Cincinnati, for example, abortion opponents held a narrow lead, despite the county voting for Trump by 31 percentage points in 2020.
The state will host one of next year’s most critical Senate races as Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) seeks re-election in a race that could decide control of the chamber.
“Ohioans made it clear that women’s health care decisions should be between them and their doctors, not politicians,” Brown said in a statement Tuesday night. “While my opponents work to ban abortion, I will continue fighting for and standing with the people of Ohio.”
Anti-abortion activists accused their rivals of lying about the referendum, but also seemed to acknowledge their struggles in persuading the public to their side.
“Pro-life, pro-woman coalitions will need to devote more resources to compassionate pro-life messages for women and their children, combatting the campaign of fear from the other side,” Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life, said in a statement.
The main proponent organization, Ohioans United for Reproductive Rights, reported receiving more than $28 million. Michael Bloomberg, the majority owner of Bloomberg Government’s parent company, gave the group $1 million.
Pennsylvania’s result, too, may send a signal about the power of abortion ahead of another key Senate race. Democrats there held onto a state Supreme Court seat in a contest that focused largely on the topic.
Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) will be seeking re-election next year, and while he describes himself as a “pro-life” Democrat, in recent years he has mostly voted in ways that support abortion access. Pennsylvania will also play a major role in deciding the presidency.
In Virginia, Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin aimed to counter Democrats’ arguments by supporting a plan to ban abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for rape, incest and to save the life of the mother. GOP operatives believe such a ban is in line with the majority of voters’ views, and hope that kind of proposal could defuse the issue and fill the conservative policy void on abortion.
Yet Republicans failed in their bid to win back the Virginia state Senate and lost control of the House of Delegates, suggesting that the Youngkin plan isn’t suddenly going to change the political winds on the issue.
Rising Star in Kentucky
If Youngkin’s star took a hit, a neighboring governor had a big night.
Expect to hear a lot more about Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, who won a second term in a state that backed Trump by 26 percentage points in 2020. As Democrats look for a new generation of national contenders, a 45-year-old who can win in an Appalachian state will draw attention.
“Kentucky made a choice. A choice not to move to the right or to the left, but to move forward for every single family,” Beshear said at his victory party.
Youngkin, meanwhile, was seen by some in the Republican donor class as a Hail Mary alternative to Trump after the former private-equity executive won in increasingly blue Virginia in 2021. That idea won’t gain any momentum after Tuesday’s results.
House Margin Gets Tighter
Democrat Gabe Amo, a former Biden White House aide, won a US House special election in Rhode Island. He’ll be the first person of color to represent the state in Congress.
The victory will, for a few critical weeks, give Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) even less room to maneuver. It cuts the GOP majority to 221-213, with a Utah special election pending on Nov. 21 to fill the seat opened by the retirement of former Rep. Chris Stewart (R).
Republicans are heavily favored to keep that seat and bump their majority back up by one. But in the meantime, as debates rage over Israel, Ukraine and a government funding deadline on Nov. 17, the GOP’s slim majority will be even tighter.
Key Mayoral Races
Long-serving US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) appeared headed to a runoff in the race to become Houston’s next mayor.
In a crowded field, Jackson Lee was running in second-place to state Sen. John Whitmire, though neither appeared likely to secure a majority.
Philadelphia elected a woman mayor for the first time, elevating City Councilwoman Cherelle Parker to replace fellow Democrat Jim Kenney.
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