Ending Iran War is Key to GOP Midterm Win, Club for Growth Says

June 3, 2026, 4:06 PM UTC

Gas prices dropping by the fall is essential to Republicans’ hopes of keeping House control in the midterm elections, according to the president of a leading conservative organization.

“A couple things have to happen” to put the GOP in a position to win the House in November, Club for Growth President David McIntosh, a former House Republican, told Bloomberg Government Wednesday at an exclusive roundtable.

“We’ve got to have a resolution in Iran,” McIntosh said, expressing confidence in President Donald Trump’s negotiating skills. Voters also “have to see a trend of gas prices coming down, Republicans actually fighting for, hopefully achieving, some of the affordability agenda,” he added.

Control of the House could come down to just a handful of competitive districts in November, with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Republicans currently holding the chamber by a 218-212 margin. Democrats are bullish about retaking the House, pointing to the headwinds Trump’s party faced during a similar midterm cycle in 2018, but Johnson and GOP leaders insist they can maintain control.

The Club for Growth’s policy arm will soon publish a paper with a few affordability areas Republicans should focus on, McIntosh said, citing deregulation and proposals to add competition to the health care market.

McIntosh predicted Trump’s signature tax-and-spending bill, which passed last summer, will have the biggest effect on the economy of any law passed during the 119th Congress. But he said a second party-line reconciliation bill aimed at immigration funding, which Republicans are currently working to pass through the Senate, could be an important win to show voters.

McIntosh also said Republicans should try for a third reconciliation bill with more conservative policies. GOP lawmakers have been split on the prospects for such a bill, with some expressing skepticism about their ability to pass it despite House leaders’ insistence it can advance before August.

“If Republicans show they’ve done everything they could, but they were stopped by the Democrats in the Senate, I think that will give the voters confidence that they can return them back to the majority,” McIntosh said.

McIntosh has criticized Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) for his more cautious approach to tackling a third reconciliation bill. It would be a better message to voters that Republicans tried to advance conservative legislation—even if it didn’t pass into law—than to avoid working on reconciliation 3.0 altogether, McIntosh said.

“i would just ask John, you know, step up to the plate and fight more,” he said

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