More than a third of House Republicans have never supported a debt-ceiling hike that became law, a daunting obstacle as President-elect Donald Trump pushes Congress to quickly raise the federal borrowing limit.
Four dozen House Republicans have always voted against debit limit hikes that have been signed into law, while 33 new GOP lawmakers have never had to vote on hiking the nation’s borrowing authority, according to a Bloomberg Government analysis of more than four decades of House votes.
The bloc of debt-limit skeptics and untested lawmakers could force Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to seek support from Democrats, who aim to use the vote as leverage over tax policy, if he can’t rally nearly unanimous support among his own conference. They could also disrupt the party’s broader legislative agenda, as GOP leaders aim to package the debt-limit increase with a major tax bill, border wall funding, and other top priorities in a massive budget reconciliation package.
Johnson has already subtly acknowledged the plan’s difficulty. He told reporters Tuesday he’s “not really wed to” the plan to raise the debt limit through reconciliation, and that leaders are still working with members.
“We’re working on a consensus on all this, and it’s a long process and it takes a lot of time,” Johnson said.
Two members — Reps. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) and Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) stand out as the toughest conservatives to win over. While other Republicans have never backed a realistic, enacted debt-limit measure, almost all House Republicans, except Biggs and Burchett, supported a partisan messaging bill in 2023 that included suspension of the debt limit, ahead of later, bipartisan negotiations.
“Everybody runs on it, and it’s easy to run on it, but it’s tough to make the decision,” Burchett said of insisting on steep spending cuts.
Burchett and Biggs have talked frequently about the issue, “crunching numbers, trying to get to a point that we could support something,” Burchett said.
Biggs said he hasn’t decided if he’ll support a debt-limit increase, saying Republicans are “way short” of assembling a proposal for him to consider.
Searching for Alternatives
Some Republicans have discussed tying a debt-limit increase to a bill responding to the wildfires in the Los Angeles area, essentially daring Democrats to oppose disaster aid in order to maintain their leverage. But conservatives also don’t like that plan, saying that if the debt limit must be raised, it should be tied to aggressive spending cuts.
“I prefer that it goes alongside a fiscal reform — spending cuts, budget process reform — because it’s fiscal in nature, and it’s basically a flashing red light right now, telling us that our debt is completely unsustainable,” House Budget Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) said.
House Republicans currently hold 219 seats to Democrats’ 215. The expected resignations of Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), who have been picked for positions in the Trump administration, would temporarily make it a narrower majority.
If the razor-thin whip count isn’t enough pressure on Johnson, he also has to contend with an uncertain deadline. If lawmakers don’t raise the debt limit before Treasury officials run out of “extraordinary measures” — likely this summer, possibly in June — the federal government will default on payments for the first time in history.
Senators Seek Cuts
The whip count in the Senate, where Republicans hold 53 seats, isn’t much easier. Eleven Senate Republicans have never supported a debt-limit bill that was signed into law, plus the four incoming freshmen who have yet to vote on any debt-limit measures.
Some longer-tenured conservatives have built up an extensive record of opposing debt-limit laws. Sens. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Mike Lee (R-Utah), and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) have each voted against 11 enacted debt-limit measures, without voting in favor of any.
Johnson said he and other conservatives can be team players, under the right conditions.
“I’m happy to negotiate and vote for increasing the debt limit as long as we have strong spending reductions,” Johnson said.
A $1.5 trillion increase in the debt limit, which House Republicans started discussing in early January, is “probably a reasonable level,” Johnson said, though it “depends on what we pass in terms of actual spending limits.”
But a $1.5 trillion boost may not buy much time before the next deadline. The fiscal 2024 deficit was $1.8 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
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