Reps.
Each of the three won tight races in 2018 to flip districts that had long supported Republicans. Each cemented her standing by winning twice more despite stiff challenges. Now, three have passed on re-election in pursuit of statewide offices, and Republicans hope to win back their battleground seats without having to contend with well-established incumbents.
“It does have a significant effect because the Democrats who have represented these seats since 2018 have value above,” that of a typical candidate, said Dave Wasserman, an elections analyst at the Cook Political Report. “They’ve run multi-million dollar campaigns to build their brand and their brand has appeal beyond the top of the ticket.”
Together the three suburban districts in Michigan (Slotkin), Virginia (Spanberger) and California (Porter), represent a small slice of the electoral map. But with the race to win the House so close, they could be meaningful in deciding who controls the chamber next year.
“The cumulative effect of these is it helps Republicans,” Wasserman said.
The trio’s runs for statewide offices also reflect how the Democratic wave of 2018, fueled by women candidates and activists, has powered the party’s political pipeline. Democrats who flipped battleground districts that year established themselves as formidable figures who could win tough races and appeal to swing voters, and they’re now using their platforms to aim for even more.
“It was women ultimately who kind of flipped the House from red to blue,” said Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. “They were running as challengers to incumbents or in districts that are far more purple.”
Of the 126 women in the House, 92 are Democrats, Walsh said.
Porter ran for US Senate in California, falling short against fellow Democratic Rep.
Kim’s seat is now safely Democratic after recent redistricting, but those held by Porter, Slotkin, and Spanberger could all be in play in this fall’s elections. A Michigan district held by Rep. Dan Kildee is also expected to be competitive as the longtime incumbent retires, though it has a much longer history of voting Democratic.
“House Democrats have a swing-seat retirement epidemic, making their climb out of the minority even steeper,” said Jack Pandol, a spokesman for Republicans’ national congressional campaign arm. The National Republican Congressional Committee “has sprung into action to recruit high-quality candidates that will flip these seats and grow the House Republican majority.”
The Democratic incumbents say that even as they seek other offices, they’re using their know-how and fund-raising to keep their districts blue.
‘My Responsibility’
“It is to me part of my responsibility to make sure we don’t lose that seat and it is something I eat, breathe, and dream about,” Slotkin said in an interview. “Because it’s so close right now” in the House.
Spanberger said she made it known early that she planned to run for governor so other Democrats would have time to mount campaigns to succeed her.
“It is something that I think about constantly,” Spanberger said. And while she won’t pick favorites in the crowded primary to replace her, as soon as a Democratic nominee is chosen, “I look forward to helping them.”
Porter noted that she has made campaign donations and lent her name to mailers supporting state Sen. Dave Min, the Democrat nominated in early March to succeed her. “I will continue to be all in,” on the race, she said.
Emblematic Districts
Each of the three districts are emblematic of the political realignment that gave Democrats a grip on suburban swing seats across the country. They were all won by women who arrived as political newcomers and were supported by activists energized by Donald Trump’s presidency. And they’ve stayed in Democratic hands as college-educated voters have continued turning away from the GOP.
But none of the districts are safe. All three were decided by fewer than 5.5 percentage points in 2022, and now they have new nominees unproven in congressional races. In California and Michigan, Democrats have nominated or are likely to nominate men to succeed the women who first captured the districts. The Democrats there have also each been state officials, so they have voting records Republicans can mine for attacks, Wasserman said.
On paper, Slotkin’s district is the most competitive and Spanberger’s the most Democratic leaning, Wasserman said. Yet the Virginia district also has the most variables, with a wide range of untested candidates running in both party primaries. Min, the Democratic nominee to replace Porter, is already absorbing attacks over a May drunk driving arrest. He was sentenced to unsupervised probation and has apologized.
Still, Wasserman rates Porter’s Orange County district as the most safely Democratic of the trio, in part because of the work she did against GOP nominee Scott Baugh last election, when she beat him by 3.4 percentage points.
“Katie Porter spent eight figures in negative advertising against Baugh and his image is still upside down from that beating,” Wasserman said.
It’s a similar situation in Michigan, where the GOP appears likely to nominate former state Sen. Tom Barrett, who lost to Slotkin in 2022. “I’ve already exposed that person for who they are in the last election cycle,” Slotkin said.
Democrats expressed confidence in holding all three seats, noting that Baugh and Barrett both lost in a midterm year when historical trends should have favored the GOP.
“The public wants results, and these Republican challengers are spewing the same tired extremism that voters have rejected time and again,” said Viet Shelton, a spokesman for Democrats’ congressional campaign arm. “The Democratic candidates in these districts are proven leaders who will keep these seats blue because they’re actually focused on lowering costs, creating good-paying jobs, and protecting reproductive freedoms.”
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