Hours into the first government shutdown in eight years, both parties angled to use the moment for political leverage, targeting potentially vulnerable rivals up for reelection next fall.
But while shutdowns generate temporary heat, they’re typically forgotten by the next Election Day — especially when they happen long before voters head to the polls, political veterans say.
Winning such a stalemate is like recovering a fumble on your own 1-yard line, said former
The clearest example comes from the 2013 shutdown, when
Within weeks, however, Democrats lost their momentum, thanks to the disastrous rollout of the enrollment website for the Affordable Care Act, President Barack Obama’s signature legislation.
By the next fall, the shutdown was barely a blip on the campaign radar, and Republicans gained nine seats in the Senate and 13 in the House, sweeping to new heights of power.
“People cared a lot more about their health care than they did a relatively temporary shut down,” Stivers said.
Similarly, in January 2018 Democrats briefly shuttered the government while demanding protections for “dreamers,” undocumented immigrants brought to the US as children. They quickly caved — and still roared to electoral success that November, gaining 40 House seats.
Shutdowns “tend to get forgotten because they don’t happen typically near midterms,” said David Wasserman, senior election analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
This one, largely over federal spending and health care, likely will be over in a matter of weeks or less. And with
“If the shutdown is not affecting average voters’ lives next October, then it’s unlikely to be an issue,” Wasserman said.
Partisan Messaging
Still, both parties are vowing that their opponents will pay a price for their role in bringing the government to a halt.
Democrats emphasize health care and their push to extend expiring subsidies that help millions of people purchase insurance through the Affordable Care Act. Without them, some people could see their health care costs more than double, according to estimates from the nonpartisan health policy organization KFF.
“The GOP’s assault on health care is devastating for families across the country, and in 2026, voters will hold them accountable for it,” said
Democrats also put health care at the center of their successful 2018 campaign, and have made clear they see it as a winning issue again. The shutdown gives them a high-profile way to raise the topic in a way that conventional debates don’t.
Even if voters don’t remember the shutdown next November, “they will remember that one party fought for lower health-care costs, and the other party raised them,” said Josh Schwerin, a Democratic strategist.
Republicans, meanwhile, accuse Democrats of cutting off pay for troops and threatening veterans’ services. Some also are raising debunked claims that Democrats support a spending plan that would provide health coverage to undocumented immigrants.
“This is gonna blow up in their face. It’s gonna be a flop,” said
Cruz said Democrats are in a losing battle for a small constituency.
“What they’re really fighting for is their left wing base,” he said.
Both parties have launched ads or web sites targeting vulnerable incumbents over the shutdown. But most of the attacks are still relatively low-profile, with little spending behind them.
Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), who’s heading into one of the most competitive races in the country, shrugged off the potential electoral risks of a shutdown.
“I’m trying to do right by my constituents to keep the government open and protect health care,” he said.
State Races to Watch
The fight might have more immediate ramifications in Virginia and New Jersey, which hold gubernatorial races next month. Virginia is home to numerous federal workers facing potential furloughs or firings, while New Jersey could be affected by the Trump administration cutting $18 billion in infrastructure funds, including some meant to support new commuter trains between the Garden State and New York.
Schwerin, who helped Democrat Terry McAuliffe win Virginia’s gubernatorial race weeks after the 2013 shutdown, said the state is uniquely sensitive to government job losses, especially after the Trump administration already slashed the workforce.
“This is their local news,” he said. “Their neighbors are the ones that are losing their jobs.”
But the effects and messages still were emerging Wednesday, amid questions about how long the shutdown will last and how hard it will really hit.
Stivers, who in 2018 ran the GOP campaign arm and now leads the Ohio Chamber of Commerce, said shutdowns can “plant a seed” with voters that shapes their views of the parties.
But, he added, “It’s not like people are going to say a year later, ‘I voted these guys out because they shut down the government.’”
Greg Giroux in Washington also contributed to this story.
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