The number of people in the US without health insurance is poised to increase by 16 million by 2034 under Republican plans for spending cuts, the Congressional Budget Office estimated.
The nonpartisan budget scorekeeper released the figures Wednesday after analyzing the potential effects of House Republicans’ reconciliation legislation (
The potential for steep health coverage losses remains a political liability for Republicans who are trying to reduce health-related costs in order to help pay for President Donald Trump’s tax and spending bill. The president has said the legislation isn’t cutting Medicaid, but is targeting waste and abuse in the program.
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Democrats immediately leveraged the CBO’s findings to voice opposition to the GOP plan.
“The results of this cruel system are clear: millions will lose coverage, health care costs will go up for all Americans, and tens of thousands will die,” Senate Finance ranking member
The estimates were included in a letter to Democrats who asked how the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the expiration of premium tax credits, and a proposed rule to tighten up Affordable Care Act enrollment would affect the number of people without insurance.
Health Coverage for Millions of Americans at Risk Under GOP Plan
The reconciliation bill alone—which the GOP plans to pass using a budget mechanism without needing Democrats’ support—would lead to around 11 million more people without insurance. CBO estimates that proposed Medicaid work requirements for adults aged 19 to 64 without dependents would increase the number of uninsured by 4.8 million by 2034.
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