House Rebels on Health Subsidies Can Tell Voters: Hey, We Tried

It may be too late for moderate House Republicans to save expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies.

But everything they’ve done in the past 48 hours shows just how desperate they are to signal to voters that they gave it a run. They resorted to guerrilla tactics after party leaders refused to put a measure extending the enhanced premium tax credits on the floor. The centrists signed, and in one case filed, discharge petitions — which allow lawmakers to force votes if they get 218 signatures.

If the credits expire at the end of December — which now seems extremely likely, if not inevitable— health care affordability becomes a No. 1 issue for Democrats to flip the House. They can argue that Republicans allowed the tax credits to expire, even if they publicly disagreed with party leaders’ positions.

A West Health-Gallup poll from November found almost half of US adults worried they won’t be able to afford necessary health care next year, the highest level recorded since they started tracking the issue in 2021. A KFF survey from earlier this month of Obamacare marketplace enrollees found almost all Democrats and seven in 10 Republicans want to see the credits extended.

The moderate Republicans only declared parliamentary warfare this week after withholding their votes on a rule that would allow for debate and consideration of a completely unrelated defense bill. They ultimately let the rule advance (after roughly an hour). However boring written petitions and rule votes may look on the outside, these episodes represent a boiling over of tensions from the wing of the GOP that isn’t known for blowing things up.

The Freedom Caucus? Sure. The conservative group was founded explicitly to oppose leadership when necessary — its members helped oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and tanked several rule votes. Centrists aren’t known for the same renegade tactics. Stereotypically, they’re “squishes,” unwilling to throw elbows or upset the congressional orthodoxy.

Now, the squishes have your attention.

“You try to do things through the normal course, you try to do things through regular order,” Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), who led a discharge petition to extend the ACA subsidies by two years, said. “All those remedies are exhausted, then you’ve got to go this route, unfortunately.”

Fitzpatrick has a lot in common with the nine other Republicans who immediately signed his discharge petition, a one-year effort by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), or both. Seven of the 10 are at serious risk of losing their seats next November. Two are retiring or resigning. And one is Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.), a former Democrat.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has already launched ads in districts of moderate Republicans, including Reps. Jen Kiggans (Va.), Ryan Mackenzie (Pa.), Rob Bresnahan (Pa.), and Mike Lawler (N.Y.). Outside groups are spending on similar ads.

Fitzpatrick’s discharge petition, and Republicans’ signature on both, will show voters they did something. And as I’ve written before, it’s good politics for vulnerable incumbents in purple districts to be seen at odds with party leadership.

Read More: Forced House Votes Take Off as Rank-and-File Flex Their Power

Of course, this all may be moot.

Fitzpatrick told reporters yesterday that his discharge petition could be called up just 48 hours after getting 218 signatures because it relates to a rule, not a bill.

“He’s wrong,” said Kacper Surdy, the “armchair parliamentarian” who runs the popular (if only in the Beltway) X account @ringwiss. Georgetown University’s Matt Glassman also said a discharge petition needs to wait seven legislative days after getting 218 signatures. And after reading the House’s standing rules in excruciating detail, I can’t find the section Fitzpatrick is referring to.

There are seven days left in the House’s legislative session this year. Which means that even if Fitzpatrick got 218 signatures today, he couldn’t force a vote before year-end without some maneuvering from leadership. Given Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) longstanding opposition to the tax credits, that looks unlikely.

Barring a Christmas miracle for Fitzpatrick and his fellow centrists, the subsidies certainly look like they’ll expire. We’re all about to hear a lot more from Democrats — and in themed ads — about health care premiums as the 2026 elections approach.

But at least Fitzpatrick can say he tried.