Ambitious, junior House Republicans could come into their own next Congress.
As GOP committee chairmen and senior lawmakers head for the exits, more junior Republicans will soon vie to take up their mantles. House Republicans are losing more than 200 combined years of institutional knowledge as 19 members, including four committee chairs, retire.
There will be heated competitions to lead the Energy & Commerce, Financial Services, and Appropriations committees, but also various lower-profile subcommittees that give members a larger, more powerful role in legislating. Scores of seats will open, too, on the House’s most coveted committees.
The House GOP is full of hand-wringing as members publicly fear the loss in institutional knowledge they’ll experience in 2025. At the same time, Republicans acknowledge that the new Congress will help less experienced lawmakers make a name for themselves in the House.
“It opens up some ladders of opportunity, but it’s a shame to lose these chairs,” said House Agriculture Chairman GT Thompson (R-Pa.), a veteran policy maker who’s running for re-election.
The last Congress, the Democratic-led House of the 117th, saw three chairmen retire, one resign, and one lose a primary. Just one chairman resigned in the 116th Congress, though two members failed to win re-election.
Those House waves all pale in comparison in committee chair turnover to the 115th Congress, a Republican-led House that Democrats would convincingly win back in the 2018 Trump midterm election. Eight GOP chairmen retired at the end of that term, clearing the way for a host of new committee leaders.
Much like in 2019, a fresh crop of House Republicans will take up the party’s policy priorities when the 119th Congress gavels in next year.
Conference Rules
Thompson and other experienced Republicans pointed out the conference’s strict chairmanship rules as a way to “keep it fresh” with new leaders across committees, but they can also be a disincentive for members to stick around. The GOP caps committee leadership to three consecutive terms as chair or ranking member.
“In some ways, the deed is already done in terms of limiting institutional and policy expertise,” Brookings Institution fellow and political science professor Sarah Binder said of the conference rules. The dynamic on the Democratic side looks different. Some of the longest-serving members, like 85-year-old Financial Services ranking member Maxine Waters, are expected to retake the committee chairs if Democrats flip the House.
What makes the recent Republican departure flood unique, Binder said, is that multiple chairmen are leaving before they’d be term limited as chairs or ranking members.
Energy and Commerce Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) and Appropriations Chairwoman Kay Granger (R-Texas) are each on their second terms in committee leadership, while Rep. Mike Gallagher, who leads the newly-established Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, is on his first. Homeland Security Chairman Mark Green (R-Tenn.), who’s on his first term as leader, shocked lawmakers by announcing his retirement last month before reversing the decision.
Gallagher, who was broadly seen as an up-and-comer before he announced his departure this month, has worked across the aisle on the China committee to address areas of bipartisan concern like human rights violations against Uyghurs. He’s earned praise from pragmatic conservatives for relationships with both traditional Republicans and the more populist new right.
If the China select committee remains in the next Congress, the Republican who replaces Gallagher (R-Wis.) will have the opportunity for a higher public profile on hot topics like competition with China. Gallagher recently led a delegation to Taiwan with Reps. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) and Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), two possible contenders to take his post.
Other Republicans involved in US-China policy who could benefit from Gallagher’s early retirement include Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.), one of the two remaining Republicans in the House who voted to impeach ex-President Donald Trump, and Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.), a long-serving member and vice chairman of the House Armed Services Committee.
The party is bracing for crowded contests for the top positions on Energy and Commerce, Financial Services, Homeland Security, and Appropriations. The Financial Services spot has drawn likely contenders like GOP Reps. Bill Huizenga (Mich.), Andy Barr (Ky.), and French Hill (Ark.), all members with years of experience in the House.
“There is more than a coincidence here; there’s a pattern,” Science Committee Chairman Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) said of his fellow chairmen’s exodus. Lucas could buck that pattern by taking on a new chairmanship: while he hasn’t announced it, he’s a likely contender for the top Financial Services role that will open in 2025.
Lucas is term limited out of his chairmanship on the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology after this year, and he previously led the House Agriculture Committee. He’s an example of how Republicans can maintain their policy power despite term limits on committee leaders.
The Republican conference’s term limits for chairs also tend to encourage dark horse candidates to lead powerful committees. On Financial Services, neither Rep. Bill Posey (Fla.) nor Ralph Norman (S.C.) has ruled out a run. Both men are members of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, and grabbing the top spot on an exclusive committee would be a major win for the group of hardline rebels.
Launching Pad
Beyond the obvious winners of the retirement wave — those who take over the committees — members interested in subcommittee gavels will have plenty of openings to vie for. Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Pa.), a newer member who took office in 2019, said he’d be interested in seeking a Financial Services subcommittee chairmanship.
Subcommittee chairmanships aren’t as high-profile or influential as top committee spots, but they can provide a launching pad for members interested in helming a full committee in the future. Likely contenders to helm Homeland Security, Financial Services, and Appropriations have overseen smaller panels on topics like counterterrorism, digital assets, and transportation policy.
Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), one of the more moderate members of the House GOP who faces a competitive re-election, is on the Financial Services Committee’s capital markets and housing subcommittees. While Lawler declined to say whether he’s seeking a subcommittee gavel, gaining one would signal a significant step up in that policy area.
Beyond top slots, 2025 will also be a prime opportunity for members to fight for seats on exclusive, coveted committees that have a heavy role in policymaking. Eight Republican seats will open on Energy & Commerce, three on Financial Services, two on Ways and Means, and one each on Appropriations and Rules.
“It’s an exciting opportunity for somebody like me, and others who could potentially rise up a little bit quicker than usual because of the heavy retirements by a lot of these senior members,” said freshman Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio).
Miller, a member of the Republican Steering Committee, said the conference should be careful to award chairmanships by merit — including members who “play by the rules” and are willing to work with others. Miller and other mainstream members of his party have been critical of conservative hardliners’ tactics this Congress, like ousting Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).
“I have always been a proponent of, you know, discipline and structure and organization,” Miller said. “And I think that should be calculated into it.”
Greg Giroux in Washington and Oma Seddiq in Washington also contributed to this story.
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