Joe Biden is now a lame duck president who will have reduced clout as lawmakers consider lingering legislation on such key issues as farm policy, defense and appropriations.
If Vice President Kamala Harris emerges victorious, she would be in a better position to immediately shape the final stretch of the 118th Congress, when much of its remaining work is awaiting completion.
Harris is no stranger to Capitol Hill, having served as a senator from 2017 until she assumed the vice presidency in 2021. As Democrats’ de facto leader, here’s how she could shape the key measures awaiting action at year’s end.
Appropriations and Debt Limit Bills
Biden’s endorsement of Harris makes lame-duck negotiations on government funding – and possibly the debt limit – more unpredictable.
Republicans had already been debating whether to seek an appropriations deal in December or wait until 2025, when they may have more leverage. House Appropriations Chairman Tom Cole (R-Okla.) has urged members to finish work quickly, so that former President Donald Trump won’t immediately face a shutdown deadline if he wins in November. But late-year negotiations may be more tense as Republicans, including Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), call on Biden to resign.
Congress also technically faces a Jan. 1, 2025, deadline to lift or suspend the debt limit, though Treasury officials can buy more time with so-called “extraordinary measures.” Lawmakers weren’t sure if they would seek negotiations in the lame duck. If they don’t resolve the issue quickly, they’re guaranteed to face a deadline early in a new presidential administration.
Taxes
Senate leadership hasn’t scheduled a vote on the bipartisan, House-passed tax bill, though Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) has pushed for a floor vote before the August recess.
Republicans have been reluctant to hand Biden a chance to send out tax refunds ahead of Election Day, though that concern will fade once the election is over. But at the moment opposition from Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) still makes a late year deal unlikely.
That would leave the expiration of the Trump tax cuts, at the end of 2025, as one of the major first-year agenda items for whoever wins the White House.
Defense Authorization
Defense is one of the few areas where both parties have a strong interest in making sure legislation renewing military programs is successful as few want to be blamed for denying soldiers pay raises and resources. The House passed its version (HR 8070) of the yearly National Defense Authorization Act last month, with most Democrats opposing the addition of amendments on culture-war issues like abortion and diversity issues. The Senate version (S 4638) has hundreds of amendments pending and is awaiting a floor vote.
The status of Biden is unlikely to hobble the NDAA, one of the few pieces of legislation that passes every year. The biggest roadblock right now is the Senate schedule and whether Majority Leader Chuck Schumer brings it up this month or in September. The likelihood of Congress finishing the defense policy legislation is high, even if the House and Senate have to go to informal conference and pass that conference report in the December lame duck.
Farm Bill Future
Trillion-dollar legislation funding food aid and farm programs will start to run out at the end of September unless Congress passes an extension, which is likely. The odds of a farm bill passing in the lame duck will likely depend on who wins the White House, Senate, and House this November.
If the balance of power for next year looks similar to the current divided government, lawmakers may see the period between November and January as ripe for pushing through a compromise five-year bill.
But if Republicans gain more power in the White House and Congress next year, they might move the deadline into next year, when they’ll have more leverage.
The House agriculture panel advanced its version (H.R. 8467) in May, but GOP leadership has yet to schedule a floor vote. The Senate committee has only released a framework for its version.
Health Policy
Much of Harris’ health portfolio centers around abortion rights. She’s led White House messaging on reproductive health care and will make Republican threats to abortion access a centerpiece of her presidential campaign.
Schumer may schedule more abortion messaging bills in the run-up to the election to press Democrats’ advantage on the topic, and the party has vowed to try to restore the rights that were thrown out when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
Even if Harris prevails, though, the odds of any expansion of abortion rights is slim given the closely divided Senate. Even if Democrats can retain the majority in the chamber, they almost certainly won’t have enough seats to break the 60-vote filibuster threshold.
There’s been a far more bipartisan approach to cancer research.
Biden launched the Cancer Moonshot eight years ago as vice president, in large part inspired by the early death of his son, Beau. Lawmakers who’ve supported the effort to push billions of dollars into biomedical research are hopeful it can survive beyond his presidency.
Harris has noted that her own mother was a biomedical scientist and peer reviewer at the National Institutes of Health who died of cancer, making the issue personal for her.
Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.), a key sponsor of the original moonshot funding,and Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-Ind.) have reached out to health care advocates and interest groups to get feedback on what an update to the original moonshot legislation should look like.
Immigration
Biden didn’t do Harris any political favors when he tapped her to address the root causes of undocumented immigration early in his presidency. Republicans have dubbed her the “border czar” and hammered her for the unauthorized border crossings that reached record highs late last year.
The issue was one of Biden’s biggest weaknesses, polls show, and will likely trail Harris as well.
This year has already shown how hard it is for any immigration legislation to pass, after a bipartisan Senate deal collapsed with Donald Trump pushing hard against it.
Any hope for an accord will almost certainly have to wait until next year, and could depend on bipartisanship that’s rarely present on this topic.
Rail Safety
Bipartisan legislation to crack down on freight railroads remains stalled more than a year after a fiery Norfolk Southern derailment in Ohio – and the latest updates to both sides of the presidential ticket this fall may impact the bill’s odds of advancing.
Although the Biden administration has been urging Congress to advance the measure, Harris hasn’t been a key figure behind the push.
East Palestine, Ohio Mayor Trent Conaway said at the Republican National Convention last week that the Biden administration has been a “train wreck” and that he never heard from Harris after the incident in his town. The crash also affected residents across the border in Pennsylvania, a key Senate and presidential battleground.
Meanwhile, Trump named as his running mate Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), who worked with Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) to craft bipartisan rail safety legislation (S. 576). Both Vance and Brown, who faces a tough re-election bid this year, had been pushing to advance the bill to tout it as a win, but the presidential race has complicated their effort.
Republicans don’t want to hand Brown a bipartisan win and Democrats might not want to do the same for Vance. This is another bill whose odds probably won’t become clear until the political season ends and control of Congress and the White House is settled.
Tech Issues
Both Democrats and Republicans have been trying to advance legislation that protects Americans from artificial intelligence’s threats while promoting its benefits. Yet the prospects for concrete congressional action appear slim this year, given the tight legislative calendar and the upcoming election.
A future Harris White House, however, could move the needle on regulation. Harris has led the Biden administration’s response to artificial intelligence. She’s met with major technology companies, civil rights leaders, and global heads of state, positioning the US as a world leader of AI development while advocating for its safe and responsible use.
Harris is already attracting support for her presidential bid from tech titans, including LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman and venture capitalist Ron Conway. A Bay Area native, Harris has had close ties to Silicon Valley, dating back to her years as San Francisco district attorney and later state attorney general.
Alex Ruoff in Washington, Skye Witley, Roxana Tiron in Washington, Michaela Ross in Washington, Oma Seddiq in Washington, Jack Fitzpatrick in Washington, Samantha Handler in Washington, Lillianna Byington in Washington and Ellen M. Gilmer in Washington also contributed to this story.
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