McConnell’s Departure Means More Turbulence for a Changing GOP

Mitch McConnell‘s decision to step aside as Senate minority leader raises questions about a Republican Party already buffeted by turbulence, the future of deal-making in a chamber that requires compromise, and GOP support for a strong US presence on the international stage.

The Kentucky lawmaker, who announced his decision Wednesday, has been a pillar of national policy debates and Republican strategy for almost two decades, setting a record as the Senate’s longest-serving leader. Now he’s leaving that role at a time of already dramatic upheaval in Congress, US politics, and global affairs.

Here are some issues the chamber and GOP face as McConnell, 82, prepares to step aside later this year, and how they could play out:

A Changing GOP: McConnell is the latest in a line of prominent traditional conservatives leaving the national stage.

In the House, former GOP Speakers John Boehner, Paul Ryan, and Kevin McCarthy all were forced aside by the populist energy embodied by the Tea Party of the 2010s and later supercharged by Donald Trump’s MAGA Republicanism. Another establishment figure, former presidential nominee Mitt Romney, is retiring from the Senate.

It isn’t clear how much Trump’s grip on the GOP, and his role as its presumptive presidential nominee, impacted McConnell’s decision. But the changing party is an unmistakable backdrop.

While the Senate hasn’t been as influenced by the populist right as the House, MAGA-styled senators have gained prominence, and might continue to do so if Trump wins a second term.

“It will be a real challenge” for whoever succeeds McConnell, “because the party is divided in a lot of ways that the party hasn’t been in a very long time,” said former Sen. Pat Toomey (Pa.), a GOP traditionalist who retired at the end of 2022. “This new populist, nativist, isolationist wing is a very outspoken and aggressive group and there are significant policy differences between them and traditional conservatives.”

The shift in attitude was represented by some of those MAGA Republicans, including Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), a Trump ally. He called McConnell’s decision to step aside “good for the conference.”

The House Freedom Caucus was more biting. In a statement, it identified McConnell not as a Republican representing Kentucky, but “D-Ukraine,” an attack on his relentless support for the war-torn country.

All of which signals that the fight over the party’s future, decided emphatically in Trump’s favor during this primary season, is likely to continue.

But Not Necessarily a MAGA Senate: While Trump has run rampant over most of the GOP, Senate Republican insiders said the chamber is likely to still remain the most traditional wing of the party.

In large part that’s because the Senate moves slower by design. Six-year terms mean it’s had less turnover than the House, and the three Republicans widely seen as leading candidates to succeed McConnell — Sens. John Thune of South Dakota, John Cornyn of Texas, and John Barrasso of Wyoming — come from orthodox GOP backgrounds. Each joined the Senate during George W. Bush’s presidency.

All three, Toomey said, have shown they are “sensible conservatives.”

“It’s an evolution, not a revolution” for the Senate, said Russ Thomasson, a former Cornyn chief of staff. The Trump influence in that chamber, he said, has been “overstated.”

Toomey said the MAGA-leaning senators’ views on certain issues — such as opposing international military aid — often get more attention because they’re outliers compared with most Republicans.

They have “momentum” based on their recent wins, Toomey said, but “they’re not a majority.”

Still, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who challenged McConnell for the leader’s job in 2022, hinted in a statement he may also jump into the race and oppose the group routinely referred to as the “three Johns.”

“I have been very clear and have long believed that we need new leadership,” Scott said in a statement. “This is an opportunity to refocus our efforts on solving the significant challenges facing our country and actually reflect the aspirations of voters.”

The Senate’s Trump faction may be small, but in a four-way race, just 15 or so votes could be enough to win the leader’s seat. That fight — decided by a secret ballot of around 50 senators — could show the depth of Trump’s influence in the chamber.

A Departing Deal Maker: Democrats won’t miss McConnell’s policies or politics, especially after his role in drastically reshaping the Supreme Court into a conservative majority that overturned Roe v. Wade.

But in a chamber that requires 60 votes to get almost anything done, several said they’d miss McConnell’s eye for a deal when necessary.

“I’ve trusted him. We’ve had a great relationship,” said President Joe Biden. “We fight like hell but he never, never, never misrepresented anything. I’m sorry to hear he’s stepping down.”

McConnell’s influence on that front has shown through repeatedly in the past two years, when he has consistently supported compromise bills to avert government shutdowns or a default on the national debt. In doing so, he defied the confrontational approach of some GOP lawmakers who prefer fights over resolutions.

“He is a master legislator. Whoever replaces him is going to have big shoes to fill in that regard,” said Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), a moderate.

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) also praised McConnell for his “patriotism,” despite decades of opposing views.

“While we often disagreed, we shared our responsibility to the American people to find common ground whenever possible,” she said in a statement.

The GOP’s combative, disruptive posture under Trump raises questions about whether its next Senate leader will be as amenable to compromise.

Waning Internationalism: McConnell has spent months urging more US aid to Ukraine, a push that, if successful, could serve as the capstone of his career.

“I believe more strongly than ever that America’s global leadership is essential to preserving the shining city on a hill that Ronald Reagan discussed,” he said Wednesday on the Senate floor, as he announced his decision.

That he had to reach back to a president of the 1980s also shows how much has changed. Fellow Republicans, including House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), have become significant roadblocks to the foreign aid package McConnell has championed, and the isolationist approach driven by Trump has changed parts of the party.

McConnell’s most likely successors largely agree with him, but it remains to be seen if any Republican will be willing to expend the same kind of political capital on foreign affairs as he has.

McConnell the Strategist: McConnell was a hugely unpopular figure nationally, but remained influential in the halls of the Senate.

His blockade against President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominee in 2016 embodied his cold-eyed tactics, with seismic policy results.

McConnell has also fiercely fought any attempts to rein in money in politics, defending campaign donations as a First Amendment freedom.

He was also a taciturn and often grim spokesman for the party. Another successor might put on a more cheery public face. But he or she will have a steep challenge matching McConnell on strategy.