Meet the House Republican Holdouts Who Could Sink Trump’s Budget

Speaker Mike Johnson will have the narrowest of margins this week as he seeks to push through President Donald Trump’s ambitious tax and spending plan.

One or two Republican opponents, depending on how many House lawmakers vote, may be enough to sink his budget plan. It would be a major setback for House Republicans and the White House and would likely delay the tax part of the plan until later the year. The vote is the most significant test yet of whether Johnson can martial his unruly caucus and deliver for Trump.

Potential opponents come from across the GOP political spectrum. Some on the hard right have long track records of opposing federal spending and deficit increases, while more moderate lawmakers worry about the impact of potential cuts to Medicaid and other politically-popular federal programs in their districts. The challenge for GOP leaders is appeasing one faction could alienate another.

All Democrats are certain to oppose the partisan plan. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) sent a letter to his members Monday urging their full attendance at the budget vote.

“There may be more than one” holdout, Johnson acknowledged at an Americans for Prosperity event Monday, jokingly requesting prayers from the audience. Johnson said leadership will be able to get them on board, though.

“I don’t think anyone wants to be in front of this train,” he added.

Here are the lawmakers who could sink the budget plan as the vote unfolds this evening:

Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.)

Valadao is one of the House’s most politically vulnerable Republicans, and has a track record of breaking with his party. He is one of only two remaining in Congress who voted to impeach Trump in 2021.

So it’s no surprise that he’s among the moderates signaling discomfort with some of the possible cuts.

“As we consider reconciliation cuts, we must be strategic,” Valadao and seven other Republicans wrote in a letter. “We need to uphold fiscal responsibility while ensuring that essential programs — programs that have empowered Americans to succeed — are not caught in the crossfire.”

The letter from lawmakers with large Hispanic constituencies and members of the Congressional Hispanic Conference outlines concerns over how cuts to Medicaid and federal programs like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program would impact their constituents.

Valadao’s district has one of the highest shares of Medicaid and food stamp recipients in the country.

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.)

Bacon has built a reputation as one of the most moderate Republicans in the House, representing Nebraska’s only Democratic district, the “Blue Dot” of Omaha.

Any deal Republican leadership negotiates with hardliners risks losing buy-in from moderates who are wary of voting for spending cuts that could eat into social safety nets such as Medicaid. Such a vote would be controversial in Bacon’s district, where nearly 14% of constituents were covered by Medicaid in 2023, and which Kamala Harris won in 2024.

Bacon’s been a target for Democrats every election cycle since his first in 2016. His ability to hold his seat could give him leverage with House Republican leaders.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.)

Massie, a fiscal hawk, was the only Republican to vote against Johnson becoming speaker last month and has shown a willingness to go it alone on budget matters.

“Almost no one in Congress is serious about cutting spending. They’re cowards,” Massie said in a post on X last week, alluding to Republicans’ budget resolution.

Massie wants deep spending cuts to federal programs — deeper than many mainstream Republicans would be willing to stomach — in exchange for any tax cuts.

He’s also eyeing a Senate run; a vote against the plan could be a way to stand out in a crowded GOP primary.

Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.)

Spartz is often a wildcard and, for now, says she will oppose the budget.

“Interesting FACT: roughly 85% of spending is not ever even looked at by Congress - convenient if you would like to hide waste, fraud and abuse,” said Spartz, who wants lawmakers to take a closer look at entitlement programs like Medicare spending.

The Indiana Republican already surprised party leaders this Congress by declining to be a part of the GOP conference and does not serve on any committees.

Spartz has been known to withhold her vote until the last minute and then flip it, complicating Johnson’s floor calculus.

Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.)

The 34-year-old newcomer won his seat last November by defeating then-Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.), a veteran appropriator. He benefited by having President Joe Biden off the ticket, given Biden’s family hailed from the Scranton-based district.

“If a bill is put in front of me that guts the benefits my neighbors rely on, I will not vote for it,” Bresnahan said in a recent X post.

Bresnahan has ample political incentive to vote ‘no’ on a bill that could impact his district’s funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and he signed the letter with Valadao. Almost a fifth of his district was on food stamps as of 2023, according to Agriculture Department data.

But it remains to be seen if the freshman would be bold enough to oppose Trump, whose coattails helped him win, and could put enormous pressure on him.

Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.)

Burchett’s a familiar but unique problem for Republican leaders.

The Tennessean has never voted to raise the federal debt ceiling in his six years in office — one of two along with Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.). It could complicate a push by Johnson to use the final reconciliation bill to raise the nation’s federal borrowing authority.

GOP leaders never reached out to Burchett during the weeks they negotiated the budget resolution among themselves, a tacit acknowledgment that he could be a holdout in a full floor vote on the framework. Burchett shrugged off the snub, saying he had not read the plan.