Next year’s gubernatorial landscape couldn’t be more different than this week’s elections in Kentucky and Mississippi.
In both of those states, incumbents ran for re-election, so the nominees had records to defend or criticize. Voters re-elected Gov. Andy Beshear (D-Ky.) and Gov. Tate Reeves (R-Miss.).
In 2024, when there will be 11 elections for governor, first-timers will win in at least seven states, either because of term limits or incumbent retirements.
The most competitive states are shaping up to be New Hampshire and North Carolina, both with open seats. For many of the other states, single-party domination will make the primaries the key 2024 contests.
“I don’t think there will be a massive sort of partisan shift across these 11 seats,” said Jonathan Winburn, professor of political science at the University of Mississippi.
“The majority of these are still safe seats, is the bottom line,” agreed Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
Governors in Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina and West Virginia are unable to seek re-election because of term limits. New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D) are eligible to run again but have decided not to seek re-election.
The question marks: Vermont Gov. Phil Scott (R) hasn’t said whether he’ll seek a fifth, two-year, term; Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte (R) hasn’t announced plans for a second run; and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R) is running for president and hasn’t said whether he’ll seek re-election to a third term if that doesn’t work out for him (he didn’t qualify for this week’s debate).
That leaves Utah‘s Spencer Cox (R) as the only incumbent governor seeking re-election so far.
In North Carolina, the Democratic front-runner to succeed Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is Attorney General Josh Stein and the leading GOP candidate is Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.
That race could become a culture-war battleground.
Robinson, the state’s first Black lieutenant governor, has attracted attention for, among other things, saying “There’s no reason anybody anywhere in America should be telling any child about transgenderism, homosexuality, any of that filth.”
His gubernatorial candidacy also renewed attention to podcast comments about Jewish bankers. More recently, he was able to counter some criticism by declaring “North Carolina Solidarity With Israel Week.”
New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, chair of the Democratic Governors Association, described the race as “responsible adult leadership versus literally clown cuckoo land,” during a recent Pluribus News online discussion.
In response, Robinson campaign spokesman Mike Lonergan called Murphy a “Soros-funded extreme liberal.”
In an email, he criticized “the out-of-state Democrat money machine’s attempts to distract voters from the failed Biden-Stein agenda of crippling inflation, unchecked illegal immigration, and other radical policies that are putting the squeeze on middle-class families and small businesses.”
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The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter ranks the race as leans Democratic while Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics calls it a toss-up.
“That’s one race where, even though you have several candidates on either side, it looks like both sides are almost already in general election mode,” said J. Miles Coleman, an associate editor at Crystal Ball.
New Hampshire
In New Hampshire, Republicans hoping to replace Sununu include former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte—who lost her seat by less than a percentage point in the 2016 election—and former state Senate President Chuck Morse, who came up short in the 2022 US Senate primary.
Ayotte was favored among Republicans surveyed in an August Emerson College poll.
“Morse didn’t run an impressive Senate campaign in 2022 and has a tougher argument to make against a better-known candidate,” Taylor said in an email.
“The state has a history of electing more moderate type governors, and that could be tested in both party primaries this year,” she said.
The Democratic candidates so far include Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Cinde Warmington, an attorney and member of a gubernatorial advisory board called the Executive Council of the State of New Hampshire.
Ex-Congressman Running
In Washington, former Rep. Dave Reichert is among the candidates seeking the GOP nomination. The top Democratic candidates so far are are Hillary Franz, commissioner of public lands, and Bob Ferguson, state attorney general.
The Cook Political Report ranks the race as likely Democratic.
“Washington state, the Republicans see that as, potentially—other than North Carolina—that could be their best potential pick up opportunity, but I think it’s a stretch, but we’ll see what the primaries end up looking like,” said Coleman.
Democrats would have a potential pickup opportunity if Scott decides not to seek re-election in Vermont, the race-rating analysts said. President Joe Biden carried the state in 2020 with 52.7% of the vote.
So far, two Democrats, state Rep. Caleb Elder and Burlington Mayor Miro Weinberger, have said they’re exploring the possibility of running for governor but haven’t officially declared their candidacies.
Without another moderate Republican waiting in the wings, “if Scott doesn’t run again, this becomes a near-certain Democratic flip,” said Taylor, who compared Vermont’s political landscape to that of Maryland and Massachusetts, where moderate GOP incumbents who didn’t run again were replaced by Democrats.
On the whole, “it looks like most of the states that are going to be up are going to lean Republican at the presidential level,” said Coleman. “It’s going to be interesting to see where the parties go on offense.”
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