Democrats succeeded in one mid-decade redistricting push this cycle, and they are aiming to pick up as many as five seats in California with primary contests concluding Tuesday.
Democrats already control 43 of 52 districts in California, which has more House seats than any other state. An additional five seats would help flip control of the House in November.
“California is probably the biggest prize for the Democrats in terms of gerrymandering because of the gain of five seats, which you just can’t do in smaller states,” Christian Grose, a political scientist at the University of Southern California, said in an interview.
Republicans, at the urging of President Donald Trump, initiated the mid-decade redistricting frenzy in Texas. Democrats successfully beat back several other redraw attempts, but California is the only state where their party put new lines in place for 2026.
Virginia Democrats’ gerrymander was blocked by the state Supreme Court. A Utah judge adopted a remedial map favoring a one-seat Democratic gain. Some Democratic-controlled states that couldn’t or didn’t redraw lines in time for November are preparing to do so for the 2028 election.
“Without this redistricting, Democrats would’ve just lost so decisively in the mid-decade redistricting battle,” Eric Schickler, co-director of UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, said in an interview.
Republicans are clinging to a 218-212 House majority.
California “creating potentially four or five additional Democratic seats is crucial for Democrats if they’re going to take the House,” he added.
Jungle System
Under California’s “Top 2” primary, candidates of all partisan stripes run on a single ballot. The top two vote-getters qualify for the Nov. 3 general election, regardless of party. That means two Republicans or two Democrats could advance and lock out the other party.
The Democratic map’s targets include Rep.
Democrats are favored to flip the northern 1st District formerly held by Doug LaMalfa (R), who died in January. State Sen. Mike McGuire (D), educator Audrey Denney (D), and state Rep. James Gallagher (R) are the leading candidates in the primary and also in a concurrent special election to complete LaMalfa’s term under the GOP-leaning version of the 1st. If no candidate wins a majority, the top two finishers will compete in an Aug. 4 runoff.
Redistricting caused GOP Reps.
Merging the Calvert and Kim districts helped create an opening for Hilda Solis (D) to return to the House, where she served from 2001 to 2009 before becoming President Barack Obama’s first Labor secretary. Solis is the leading candidate in the new 38th District.
Two Republican districts will be tougher for Democrats to flip.
In the 22nd District, a Hispanic-majority agricultural hub in the Central Valley, Democrats are divided over who should advance to face Rep.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is backing state Rep. Jasmeet Bains, a physician running as a center-left Democrat, over Randy Villegas, an educator whose supporters include the Congressional Progressive Caucus and Working Families Party.
Nine Democrats and two Republicans are on the ballot in the 48th District, which includes parts of Riverside and San Diego counties and added liberal Palm Springs in redistricting. Rep.
The National Republican Congressional Committee backed San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond. The leading Democrats probably are Ammar Campa-Najjar, a former Obama administration Labor Department official, and San Diego City Council member Marni von Wilpert.
Incumbent Protection
The map also shored up six Democrats who were elected or re-elected in 2024 by fewer than 5 points.
Reps.
Several older, long-serving Democrats face much younger rivals within their own party.
Rep.
Rep.
Rep.
Rep.
Former Speaker
California’s other open district is the dark-blue 14th District in Alameda County, where Eric Swalwell (D) resigned after ending his campaign for governor amid scandal. State Sen. Aisha Wahab (D) is the leading candidate.