Senators Eyeing McConnell’s Post Have Spent Millions Networking

The three men long believed to be most likely to eventually replace Mitch McConnell as the top Republican in the Senate have spent millions of dollars creating a network of political alliances by boosting the re-election campaigns of their current or potential colleagues, the rarified pool of voters who will choose one of the most powerful Republicans in the country.

Three Republican senators are seen in Washington as most likely successors to McConnell, who has served as the top Senate Republican since 2007 and announced Wednesday he will step down as leader after the November elections. They are Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.); Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a former member of leadership and centrist negotiator; and Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), who as conference chair organizes regular meetings of GOP senators.

“The Three Johns,” as they’re often called, have done little to tamp down speculation about their ambition for the job when it opens. Other senators could also go for the job in a secret-ballot vote that could be decided by the narrowest of margins.

In a signal of the lengths to which aspirants for the top job in the Senate will go, Cornyn, Thune, and Barrasso have directed over $32 million toward current and potential future senators since 2019, according to a Bloomberg Government analysis of Federal Election Commission records and data managed by the Center for Responsive Politics.

Political fundraising is “going to be tremendously important” to the next leader, said Ryan Taylor, a senior vice president of public affairs at Forbes Tate Partners and a former Barrasso adviser. “It’s always a factor” in who should take the role, he said.

BGOV’s analysis examined five years of FEC records for campaigns, leadership PACs, and key joint fundraising committees linked to the three senators and tracked contributions from those entities to incumbent senators, Senate hopefuls, and party apparati responsible for supporting Senate candidates across the country.

Such largesse demonstrates a candidate’s ability to raise money toward the biennial effort to gain or keep the Senate majority, a key requisite for the leader role and a factor in McConnell’s own longevity.

It’s also a signal that the next leader could be in that senator’s corner when it matters most, either at the ballot box or in the next high-stakes negotiation.

Earlier: McConnell’s Illness Intensifies Quiet Scramble for Who’s Next

Money Makers

Senate Republican leadership elections are insular affairs, with current senators and incoming senators voting by secret ballot for one of their colleagues to lead the caucus for a two-year term.

Senators have a number of means for directing political contributions to their allies. Cornyn, Thune, and Barrasso all regularly hold big-dollar fundraisers for Senate candidates or party-wide organizations or can sign their names to emails to grassroots supporters who donate in smaller but more regular amounts. Contributions from those sources inflate the total amount of money each senator has given to his party’s coffers that wouldn’t be reflected in federal disclosures.

Cornyn has the longest history of support for his colleagues’ political endeavors given his four years as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and another six as whip, the second-highest ranking job in the conference.

Rob Jesmer, a top Cornyn political adviser and managing partner at PLUS Communications, said the senator’s tenure at the NRSC and relationship with the large donor community in Texas gave him a “unique position” from which to support colleagues’ campaigns.

“After he became NRSC chair, he just never stopped,” Jesmer said.

Cornyn’s fundraising through his joint committee goes to all Republican incumbents and candidates, according to a source familiar with the campaign.

Barrasso frequently hosts senators in his home state of Wyoming, where Jackson Hole is a popular destination for big-money fundraisers. At just one fundraiser Barrasso hosted for Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), she raised more than $200,000 as she seeks a second term, according to a Blackburn spokesperson.

“Republicans are now focused on the most important election, which is the November election affecting the presidency, the majority of the Senate and the House of Representatives,” Barrasso said Wednesday. “That’s what my focus is.”

Their political activity will only escalate in 2024 as Republicans seek a unique opportunity to gain a durable Senate majority for years to come.

Thune has already raised more than $7.6 million for the NRSC this cycle, according to two sources familiar with his political operation. That’s more than any GOP senator other than the committee’s chairman Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), one of those sources said. He also committed last year to retiring half of the final $500,000 in debt the NRSC had late last year. The NRSC reported a month later it was debt free.

“Thune’s in the best position, and his contributions to NRSC and individual members helps him,” said Ozzie Palomo, a founder of Chartwell Strategy Group.

Thune reported $18.7 million on hand as of the end of last year that he can still spend to help colleagues in the upcoming election, according to FEC disclosures from his campaign and leadership PAC. Barrasso’s committees reported $7.4 million in the bank and Cornyn’s $2.6 million.