Soon after the polls close Tuesday, another contest shifts into high gear in Washington, where Senate Republicans will pick a new leader in a race colored by who wins the White House and control of Congress.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who announced earlier this year he would step down from his post at the end of this Congress, told senators this week that the leadership election will be held on Nov. 13. Possible successors, led by Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) and former whip and campaigns chief Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), have been running campaigns for a job that does not often come open.
All the positioning however, cannot account for the elections, where Congress and the presidency remain up for grabs. Senate races will usher in freshmen who would have to quickly align with an establishment-aligned candidate or a rebel with reform plans, and a triumphant Donald Trump too might weigh in.
Members may also demand a leader promising changes to how the conference privately operates if Democrats once again hold onto power. Senate Democrats currently hold the chamber 51-49, but Republicans are seen as having a narrow edge in reclaiming it next week.
“If we don’t win the Senate, I think there’ll be a broader conversation about why we’ve had two disappointing cycles in a row,” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) said shortly before the Senate adjourned for the October recess.
One possible dark horse, National Senatorial Republican Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.), took himself out of the running Wednesday. He had previously declined to rule out seeking a higher position in leadership should Republicans win a substantial majority.
Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), another former NRSC chairman who unsuccessfully challenged McConnell in 2022, is also in the race for leader. But he has little time to focus on it as he has been locked in a competitive re-election battle. Scott, who attracted support from conservatives dissatisfied with McConnell, could try to rally his backers behind another senator if his bid falls short.
Trump Effect
Whoever is elected leader will be either be a top governing partner for the Trump administration or a primary obstacle to Vice President Kamala Harris’s agenda, causing members to weigh which candidate is best suited for either role.
Senators remain on alert for a possible endorsement by Trump if he wins back the White House.
While members aligned with Trump’s populist worldview would give his opinion weight, it could also backfire with senators eager to maintain the body’s famously independent reputation.
“The Senate is a weird thing to understand unless you’re a part of it,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), a member of McConnell’s leadership team, told Bloomberg Television last week. “We don’t like outside influences.”
Both of the frontrunners have come around to backing Trump despite some initial skepticism, though Cornyn was quicker than Thune to endorse his return to the White House.
Thune met with the former president at Mar-a-Lago in March, and they have had several constructive conversations since then, according to a source familiar.
Thune has not campaigned with Trump but stumped with Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), the party’s vice presidential nominee, and he met with members of Trump’s transition team last month, the source said.
Cornyn initially questioned Trump’s electability last year but has campaigned with him in Texas and Nevada in the closing weeks of the election.
While McConnell scheduled the secret ballot for the first week back after the election, members could push for a delay if enough races remain uncalled.
Thune and Cornyn have spent the last few months crisscrossing the country in hopes of flipping the majority and make inroads with candidates.
Thune in just the last month has been on the trail for candidates in Indiana, Montana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Cornyn’s travels this recess have taken him to Indiana, Michigan and Nevada.
Thune has raised more than $31 million for his operation, candidates or the NRSC this cycle compared to Cornyn’s $26 million, according to sources familiar with each senator’s efforts. Only Daines has raised more money than Thune this cycle, the source familiar with the latter operation said.
But Cornyn has a longer history of political largess totaling $406 million since he came to the Senate in 2002. That places him second only to McConnell in fundraising over the past 15 years, according to source familiar with Cornyn’s activity.
Competing Asks
Few senators have disclosed their pick. Sens. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) and Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) back Thune while Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) prefers Scott.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R), who faces a competitive re-election race, hasn’t backed fellow Texan Cornyn, with whom he has had a frosty relationship. “I’m deliberately keeping my cards close to the vest,” Cruz said in September.
Lawmakers for months have privately pushed candidates for changes in how the Senate operates.
“I’m leaving an open mind until I extract whatever I can out of them,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.). “You don’t want to give up your leverage too early.”
Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), a Scott ally, wants to subject a leader’s ability block amendments to veto by a super-majority of Republicans. Tillis, who says he’ll support Thune or Cornyn, warned that would weaken a leader’s ability to move legislation.
Tillis has also said the next leader should have greater say in committee assignments and imposing time limits on conference meetings. Lee, who lost his seat on the Commerce Committee after spearheading Scott’s bid against McConnell in 2022, wants the opposite.
Senators expect to be tight lipped ahead of the secret-ballot vote, even to the candidates.
“None of them’s going to know” who I vote for, said Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), one of just two current Republicans to serve during the last contested open election for GOP leader.
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