Republican Seeks to Add Kalshi, Polymarket Rules to Stock Ban (1)

The House Administration Committee’s top Republican is working to add restrictions on lawmakers using prediction markets to the panel’s signature stock ban bill and pass it this summer.

The panel in January advanced a GOP-led stock ban bill (H.R. 7008), which Democrats painted as watered down because it would ban trades while allowing members to hold onto existing shares. Republican leaders have said they’ll schedule a vote on the legislation, but it’s been in limbo for months.

Administration Chairman Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) is planning to add language barring members from betting on elections and public policy on prediction markets to the bill, he said Thursday at a roundtable with reporters. “In my conversations with members and just the broad public, I don’t think anyone believes that members of Congress should be making trades on elections or making trades on public policy,” Steil said.

Betting markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have come under congressional scrutiny as lawmakers weigh barring themselves from making predictions that could involve inside information. The Senate in April adopted a rule prohibiting its members from using prediction markets. Steil said while he would support such a rule, he’s focused on legislation that would carry the force of law even after lawmakers leave the chamber.

Steil attributed the stock ban’s delayed House vote to a lack of floor time and said he’s hopeful leadership will put it on the floor for a vote — with the prediction markets language — this summer. He said the committee-advanced stock bill could be amended with another markup or a manager’s amendment.

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) confirmed in a brief interview with Bloomberg Government Thursday that he intends to put the stock ban bill on the floor this summer.

House Administration isn’t the only committee with some jurisdiction over these emerging markets. Steil said he expects the House Ethics Committee to issue updated guidance for members related to prediction markets protocols.

Notably, Steil didn’t advocate for a full ban on prediction markets for members of Congress. He said certain bets, like predicting the winner of the Super Bowl, wouldn’t conflict with lawmakers’ roles. Steil said he wants his prediction markets legislation to crack down on two areas — bets on elections and on public policy decisions. Both, Steil said, could be viewed by the public as insider trading.

The House Financial Services Committee, of which Steil is a member, held a Republican-only roundtable Wednesday with prediction market executives and the American Gaming Association. The major betting markets already include restrictions on insider trading, he said, but their novelty means the House lacks specific rules to regulate them among lawmakers.

“I don’t think this is a critique of the underlying product one way or the other,” Steil said of his proposal.