Former Rep. Mike Rogers remembers working in a car factory to put himself through college. This year the longtime Republican is leaning into his ability to connect with historically Democratic auto union workers in a competitive Senate race in Michigan.
“I understand these people,” Rogers said in an interview last month. “You’re going to see a shift from voting on UAW here in Michigan in a way we probably haven’t seen maybe since Ronald Reagan. They’re going to vote for Republicans.”
Democrats have traditionally been the party of unions, and members of the party are stressing their pro-labor messaging as they seek gains in Congress come November.
But on the heels of a strike-heavy year, Republican candidates are making a 2024 play for union voters—even if they can’t win over leadership.
Likely GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump’s strong working-class support, coupled with a growing populist insurgency in the Republican Party, makes conservatives think they can grab a significant chunk of the labor vote.
Despite dwindling union membership across the US, the demographic still represents a key constituency as both parties battle for votes in competitive congressional races in Rust Belt states that could determine control of the House and Senate next year. Unions flexed their power in the past year with high-profile labor demonstrations such as the United Auto Workers and writers’ strikes.
As the Republican Party increasingly wins over the working class with Trump-aligned populists, union membership will trend away from its more liberal leaders, said Oren Cass, the executive director of the center-right group American Compass.
“Frankly, it’s hard for me to envision a crop of conservative union activists taking over these unions,” Cass said. Instead, he expects “the endorsements just become irrelevant. Like at some point, everybody’s in on the joke.”
Some congressional Republicans—particularly in the populist wing of the party—moved to align with union workers during high-profile events in the past year.
Sens. J.D. Vance (Ohio) and Josh Hawley (Mo.) supported the strike against the Detroit Big Three automakers last fall. They said then the workers deserved a raise and protections against the transition to electric vehicles.
Vance, Hawley, and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) have also been pushing the administration to block the sale of US Steel to the Japanese Nippon Steel Corp., siding with the United Steel Workers and Democrats who have said the Pittsburgh-based manufacturer should be sold to an American company.
Union leaders reject the notion that members will move to the GOP camp. Trump tries to court union voters, but in Michigan he spoke about auto workers at a non-union hall, said D. Taylor, president of UNITE-HERE, which represents workers in the hotel, gaming, food service, manufacturing, textile, distribution, laundry, transportation, and airport industries.
“I mean, come on,” Taylor said in an interview.
Falling Membership
Union membership has been falling in the US private sector for decades. Both Ohio and Michigan saw the percentage of union workers decline in 2023, with Michigan’s 12% rate the lowest ever.
Pennsylvania was the only one of the three to see more union workers last year at 12.9% from 12.7% in 2022, but they’re still far from their 1989 peak when 20.9% of workers belonged to a union, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Despite the decline, unions are hoping to capitalize on approval ratings that are the highest in decades to bring out the vote in November. Beyond endorsing candidates, unions tend to apply their organizing techniques to bring up turnout.
UNITE-HERE led the largest union door-to-door operation in Pennsylvania in 2022 to elect Democrats John Fetterman to the Senate and Josh Shapiro governor. And they plan to be just as energetic this year, Taylor said.
“It’s a grind, it’s persistence. There’s nothing romantic about it, but it’s what makes a difference in the election,” Taylor said. “We’re not the glamorous quarterback, or the running backs and wide receivers, we’re the offensive linemen that actually give the opportunity for candidates to win.”
Workers should look at Republicans’ actions and not just their words, said UAW President Shawn Fain. They’ve been the party “pushing the massive wealth inequality that we’re living now, that we’ve been living the last 40 years, and keeps rolling,” he said in an interview.
But Republicans say their party is beginning to align with unions on policy issues.
Jason Thielman, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, predicted Republicans would support more pro-labor legislation, such as higher wages for workers in federal infrastructure projects through the Davis-Bacon Act. Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), who heads the committee, voted with seven other Republicans to keep prevailing wage provisions in the 2022 CHIPS Act, which provided funding and incentives for domestic semiconductor manufacturing,
Republicans also shouldn’t “poke a stick in their eye on things like ‘right to work’ because we have such much more in common,” Thielman said in an interview last month at Bloomberg Government’s office. “We don’t need to be focusing on the things that have traditionally divided the Republican Party from these voters.”
Government Regulations
Republicans’ labor-focused talking points have centered on government regulations’ impact on private industry. Former Michigan state Sen. Tom Barrett, a Republican congressional candidate, blames government regulation for manufacturing losses in the US.
Barrett is running for the toss-up Lansing seat currently held by Senate candidate Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.). He bills himself as a “working class conservative for Congress.” The crux of Barrett’s economic message is to “get the government out of the way so every American can reach their full potential.”
His Democratic challenger Curtis Hertel said that Barrett is not a champion of working people. “He has gone against their right to organize, he voted against their attempts to protect paid sick leave,” he said.
Democrats and union officials point out Republicans overwhelmingly oppose labor’s marquee bill, the PRO Act, which would overhaul the country’s labor laws, and have rejected raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour.
Democrats say they’ll lean on their support for legislation favored by unions as they look to flip control of the House and retain control of the Senate.
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who is up for re-election and frequently wears union-made suits and a canary pin to symbolize his support for unions, said his chops with organized labor has defined his career.
“My theme is ‘dignity of work,’” Brown said in an interview last month. “I have no concerns.”
Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-Pa.), who’s running for re-election in a competitive Pittsburgh district, said Republican “talking points” on defunding government agencies “led to a watered down regulation of the railroad industry that gave us a derailment in East Palestine.”
Despite the GOP courting of union voters, Taylor expressed some confidence in the Ohio and Pennsylvania Senate races, saying Brown and Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) have deep ties to organized labor and have been re-elected over the years because they know their states well.
He said Democrats will find a path in these tough Rust Belt races by talking about kitchen table issues.
“Some people might not agree with James Carville in the ’92 Clinton race, but it’s the economy, stupid,” Taylor said.
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