Departures of several veteran senators next year will leave the chamber with less experience, creating opportunities for junior members to step up to lead committees and better push their priorities.
The average tenure of a senator will drop to below 11 years in January, according to a Bloomberg Government analysis of senatorial seniority.
That roughly matches the average seniority of senators during the Trump administration but falls short of the longevity of senators during Biden’s current according to the Congressional Research Service.
The coming shift will allow senators, now in their second or third terms, to have a better shot at serving as chair or ranking member of congressional panels and more muscle to move legislation.
It comes at a precarious time. Longtime GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) is stepping down and control of the White House and Capitol Hill is in the balance, leaving less experienced senators to navigate a highly polarized Capitol Hill.
“It’s a real brain drain,” said retiring Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.), the chair of the Environment and Public Works Committee who is stepping down after four terms.
New senators do bring fresh perspective to a body that sees historically little turnover, and veteran committee staff continue to guide senators even as the name on the door changes.
But lawmakers with longevity can more easily police the implementation of the laws they helped write and tend to have more of the bipartisan relationships necessary to negotiate high-stakes deals.
“It makes a difference,” said former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss.), a lobbyist at Crossroads Strategies. “They’ve learned that all the nooks and crannies and the tricks of the place.”
Democrats will lose more cumulative seniority than Republicans come January. Six members of the caucus, four of whom chair committees, opted against seeking re-election. That includes Carper and Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), who have been in the Senate since 2001, as well as Sens. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who came to the body during the Obama administration.
Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), a former committee chairman who is on trial for corruption charges, could also be leaving. He is seeking another term as an independent against Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.), the leading candidate in Tuesday’s Democratic primary.
Moving up
The exit of senior members create opportunities for younger members to take key negotiating roles on domestic and international affairs.
“We’re losing some very capable, effectively bipartisan leaders,” said Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), who’s expected to replace Manchin as the top Democrat on the Energy and Natural Resources Committee if he wins a third term in November. “The good news is there are a lot of folks coming up who are also very talented, and it’ll be an opportunity to showcase some of that.”
Change in committee leadership, especially its chairman, can shift a panel’s investigative and legislative focus. Heinrich, a climate hawk, would likely pursue a more progressive agenda than Manchin, an ally of the fossil fuel industry.
Other committees could see less policy change even as their leadership turns over. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) would likely replace Cardin as the top Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee if Menendez leaves and would continue Cardin’s track record of working with Republicans as war rages in Europe and the Middle East.
“I enjoy working with her, I think she’s very much like Ben,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).
By comparison, the only two GOP senators planning to leave have only served a single term and never led a committee.
Sen. Mike Braun (R), who opted out against seeking a second term to run for Indiana governor, acknowledged that as a first-term senator, “you’re making your point, but nobody’s really paying attention to it.”
Republicans impose a six-year term limit on their committee chairmen, creating more frequent panel shuffles that elevate younger members. For example, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) was the ranking members on the Commerce Committee before the end of his second term, giving him the chance to help craft a recent aviation package that created openings for more commercial flights for Texas.
More long-tenured Democratic senators could also exit in January if they’re unseated in November, where they’d likely be replaced by Republican recruits. Several Republican businessmen who have not held elective office are challenging veteran Democrats this cycle.
“It’s an opportunity to unlearn bad habits and learn some new ones,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who’s running for Republican leader, of a possible influx of new Republicans. “There’s no such thing as an indispensable member, and all the new people that come on board bring fresh perspectives.”
Election impacts
Democrats have more senators who are simultaneously more senior and more vulnerable than their Republican colleagues who are also on the ballot this fall.
Senate committee chairmen Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), for instance, are both seeking a fourth term in November. But they represent states former President Donald Trump carried in 2020, giving Republicans hope they can unseat them.
Republican seem less likely to lose seniority to the ballot box. Cruz and Sen. Rick Scott (Fla.), who is running for a second term, are the only two GOP incumbents that Democrats think they have a shot at beating this fall.
“Experience does matter,” said Sen. Gary Peters (Mich.), who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “To have an understanding how the Senate works and have a deeper understanding of the issues that are coming up within a committee is very important.”
Freshman senators do regularly take gavels or ranking memberships of subcommittees relevant to their states, and filibuster traditions grant even the most junior senator the ability to halt business and extract demands from their more senior colleagues.
“It is harder to get into a leadership position in the House than the Senate,” said Stabenow, a former House member who joined then-Minority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-Nev.) leadership team in her first Senate term.
Carper has assured colleagues once they get to know Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.), his likely successor, “you’ll forget my name in about a week.”
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