Senators to Watch on Tax Megabill as GOP Leaders Hunt for Votes

Only four Republican defections could dash the GOP’s goal of delivering a massive tax and spending package to President Donald Trump by July 4.

If Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) wants to bring the measure (H.R. 1) to the floor this week, he’ll need to secure the votes of at least 50 of the 53 GOP senators in the next few days. (Vice President JD Vance could cast the tie-breaking 51st vote.) That could be a challenge as some senators have reservations about the package, with some opposing cuts to Medicaid while fiscal hardliners who worry it would explode the deficit are lobbying for deeper reductions.

The megabill, which is still being shaped after parliamentarian rulings nixing certain provisions, is the biggest test yet for Thune’s ability to wrangle his conference.

“We clearly have some members that can go from angel to a-hole in about three seconds,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said. “There’s nothing wrong with having a meltdown. You just can’t let yourself unpack and live there.”

Thune has threatened to keep the Senate in session until the bill is passed. Even if Thune can secure the votes, the measure will head back to the House where a similarly tight margin and opposition to the Senate’s version is already causing trouble.

Here are the senators to watch as the deadline approaches:

Rand Paul

Republicans are assuming fiscal hawk and libertarian Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) to be a no on the megabill.

He’s repeatedly said he would vote for the measure if Republicans separate out the debt limit — which leadership says isn’t on the table. The Senate bill proposes raising the debt limit by $5 trillion. Senate Republicans also shut down Paul’s proposal for the border security portion of the text, even though he’s chair of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.

“I’ve told them all along what it takes,” Paul said. Without the Kentucky senator, Republicans have been working to negotiate with senators they see as more likely to convince.

Ron Johnson

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), a fiscal hawk, has been another thorn in the side of leadership as he’s publicly demanded Republicans cut spending.

Johnson has been pushing to consider the bill in multiple parts. For his vote, he says he’s asked for a commitment to reduce spending to pre-pandemic levels and a process to maintain that ceiling.

Although Johnson has lightened some of his rhetoric criticizing the bill in recent days, he still released a report last week doubling down on his concerns about spending. “The whole point of laying out the report was to get everybody to acknowledge and admit reality,” he said.

Josh Hawley

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) has pushed GOP leaders to strike Senate language altering a Medicaid financing provision that would result in reductions to the healthcare program. Hawley, who’s warned those cuts could cost elections, has been talking with leadership about ways to reverse those cuts.

“We’re talking so that’s good,” Hawley said. “There’s a number of different things they can do. They have to do something, you cannot defund rural hospitals.”

The measure would limit Medicaid provider taxes, which states use to collect more federal matching funds. Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.), whose state relies on Medicaid, has also raised concerns about the provider tax.

Susan Collins

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) was one of just two GOP senators, along with Paul, who voted against the budget plan in its initial stage when it was debated on the floor after expressing concerns about potential Medicaid cuts.

Collins, who is up for re-election in 2026 in a Democrat-leaning state, has continued to raise concerns about Medicaid as she faces outside pressure, including from op-eds, protests at home, and lobbying by health groups. She however, has a history of following in line with her party.

Lisa Murkowski

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), a moderate who’s known for taking independent stands, has also raised concerns about the Medicaid provisions in the bill.

“The fact that Senator Hawley is in alignment with Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins on this issue has raised a few eyebrows,” Murkowski said about Medicaid on a recent podcast. Murkowski and Collins have also raised concerns about blocking funds to Planned Parenthood.

Mike Lee

Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) is another fiscal hawk who’s been pushing to reduce the deficit more in the measure and urging a fuller phaseout of the Democrat-enacted renewable energy subsidies.

Lee said Monday the bill was “moving in the wrong direction.” Lee, who chairs the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, has also been facing pushback on his provision in the legislation to raise revenue through public lands sales.

Rick Scott

Another fiscal hawk who’s sought deeper cuts, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) has complained that states like his help pay for Medicaid benefits in blue states. He said the focus should be on Medicaid’s original purpose: children and the chronically ill.

He says Medicaid shouldn’t be paying out more than Medicare and states shouldn’t be eligible for expanded federal Medicaid payments for new enrollees after two years.

“There is not a Republican here that doesn’t want to pass the bill,” Scott said. “But we all want to make sure it’s good enough.” Scott was chief executive officer of Columbia/HCA Healthcare, which was found guilty of defrauding Medicare and Medicaid.