Multi-Faceted Moscow Meeting
US special envoy Steve Witkoff is in Russia today for talks with President Vladimir Putin that merge two presidential priorities: trade policy and the war against Ukraine.
Witkoff’s main goal is to talk about achieving a military truce, which President Donald Trump said he wants to happen by Friday or else he’ll impose economic penalties.
The threatened penalties put trade into play. Ukraine’s allies have said energy purchases have helped to prop up Putin’s economy and undercut pressure on Moscow to end a war that is now in its fourth year. That led Trump to talk about secondary tariffs against the customer nations, including India.
Buying Russian oil is “fueling the war machine, and if they’re going to do that, I’m not going to be happy,” Trump told CNBC.
Trump has called India’s economy “dead,” its tariff barriers “obnoxious” and its people indifferent to the plight of Ukrainians. Yesterday, he said he planned to increase the 25% tariff on Indian exports to the US “substantially over the next 24 hours” — so if he wasn’t just speaking colorfully, an announcement could come any time now.
As for Russia, while Putin has said he won’t abandon his campaign in Ukraine, people familiar with the situation said the Kremlin might offer concessions such as halting airstrikes. Read More
Watch video of Witkoff and Putin meeting here.
See also:
- India Braces for Pain as Trump Gives Tariff Warning
- Canada Will Look at Opportunities to Remove Tariffs
- Swiss President to See Rubio as Trump Meeting Still Unclear
- Armenia’s Prime Minister to Meet With Trump
Exclusive: How Trump’s Cuts Hurt US Fleet
Government-sponsored foreign aid represents the bulk of cargo orders for some US shippers, and contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars were plunged into limbo when Trump dismantled the US Agency for International Development.
Phineas Hogan examined the fallout from that sudden loss of business, with industry insiders warning that voiding foreign aid cargo orders would jeopardize jobs, cripple military sealift capabilities, and clash with Trump’s declared vision of boosting the US shipping industry.
“If the cargo isn’t there, you can’t sustain a US-flag vessel,” said Torben Svenningsen, chief commercial officer of Norfolk, Va.-based Maersk Line, Ltd., who said USAID orders account for a major portion of the company’s revenue. “If food aid isn’t there in some form in the future, there’s no possible way that you can grow the future fleet.” Read More
The Mess in Texas
Rhetoric and repercussions are both amping up in Texas, where Gov. Greg Abbott (R) said he has asked the state Supreme Court to kick the leader of the Democratic caucus out of his job as a state representative as punishment for leading a quorum-breaking, redistricting-thwarting exodus from Austin.
“Texas House Democrats abandoned their duty to Texans, and there must be consequences,” Abbott said in a statement.
Before the petition was filed, state Rep. Gene Wu (D) was asked by reporters whether the governor has the power to remove him and other Democrats from office. His response: “Absolutely not, and that is very clear.”
Arrest warrants have been issued that can’t be enforced across state lines. Lawmakers also face daily fines.
Abbott also directed the Texas Rangers to investigate potential violations, including bribery, by “any of those Democrats who solicit, accept or agree to accept such funds to assist in the violation of legislative duties or for purposes of skipping a vote.”
State Rep. James Talarico (D) told Bloomberg Television that the arrest threats are “a page out of the authoritarian playbook that we’ve seen in other countries.” Read More
California lawmakers will have to hurry if they want voters to decide on Nov. 4 whether the state should redraw its districts. The California Secretary of State’s Office said legislators would need to declare by Aug. 22 that a special election is going to take place, a deadline that comes just a few days after they are set to return from summer recess on Aug. 18.
— Andrew Oxford
Trump’s Uni Squeeze
Trump’s attacks on higher education and immigration are colliding, prompting warnings from both private and public colleges that the policies will chill enrollment.
First-time foreign student enrollment on US campuses is projected to fall by about 30% this fall, according to preliminary forecasts by the trade group NAFSA: Association of International Educators and JB International. That translates to an approximately $2.6 billion decline in tuition revenue across campuses, according to Shorelight, an international education organization, which also estimates enrollment declines in that range.
One example: Arizona State University’s president said 1,000 incoming international students still need visas, a hit to the school’s budget he estimates would be in the “tens of millions of dollars.” Read More
See also: Brown University Could Face $30 Million Federal Loss (Boston Globe)
Magnets Matter
For a modern example of how Pentagon purchasing is part of a wider ecosystem, look at rare-earth minerals.
The Pentagon requires 3,000 to 4,000 tons of highly specialized magnets annually, so a vulnerability was exposed when Beijing cut off supplies this spring as tariff retaliation. Roxana Tiron reports.
China makes both magnets and manufacturing equipment, and “If you have one piece of Chinese equipment in your production line, China has a kill switch and can cut a few lines of code and really shut down operations for a good amount of time,” said John Maslin of the Durham, N.C.-based startup Vulcan Elements.
Vulcan’s federal contracts include one last year for $1.2 million, and more contracts are possible depending on what Congress decides to include in the fiscal 2026 defense policy bill. Read More
Epstein Update
Three developments to know about as different parts of the federal government deal with public interest in the details of Jeffrey Epstein’s sex-trafficing operation.
- A Republican-led House committee subpoenaed the Justice Department and a slew of former US officials for information.
- Epstein’s convicted accomplice, Ghislaine Maxwell, fought back in federal court against making materials in her case public.
- Trump said he wasn’t involved in the decision to move Maxwell to a minimum-security prison camp, telling reporters “I read about it just like you did.”
The Justice Department has indicated in court filings that grand jury material it is seeking to disclose is very limited and probably won’t shed any new light on what’s publicly known about Epstein’s operation. That’s different than the huge collection of documents and files obtained during the investigations into Epstein and Maxwell, including interviews with witnesses and victims. Read More
See also: Epstein Victims Express Disgust, Fear at Handling of Files
Eye on the Economy
US companies are reducing headcounts. The Institute for Supply Management’s employment index dropped to 46.4, shrinking for the fourth time in five months — one of the lowest readings since the pandemic.
The group’s measure of prices paid for materials and services, meanwhile, climbed to the highest since October 2022. They’re data points worth noting as the economy deals with uncertainty about how the administration’s trade policies will shake out. Read More
See also:
Before You Go
Never Mind: Prosecutors are focusing resources on other areas, the government says in a court filing explaining why they want to toss corporate fraud charges against a Trump donor. The case against Andrew Wiederhorn alleges that he helped conceal $47 million from the IRS, Maia Spoto reports. Read More
Expensive Discouragement: Travelers from Malawi and Zambia will have to post bonds as high as $15,000 to get visas starting later this month, Andrew Kreighbaum reports. The State Department said it intends to refund that money when the visa holders leave the US on time. Read More
Vaccine Shakeup: HHS is canceling nearly two dozen mRNA vaccine development contracts, Ian Lopez reports. The 22 contracts are worth nearly $500 million and include work at Moderna, Emory University, and Tiba Biotech. Read More
Passing the Baton: With more than a year to go until the internal caucus election, Hawaii Sen. Brian Schatz has hustled to win the backing of colleagues for the job of Democratic whip, which would leave only one more role to aspire toward: Senate party leader. Lillianna Byington reports that that path looks clear now that Schatz has the formal endorsement of Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Read More
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