Tax Megabill Heading for a Senate ‘Photo Finish': Starting Line

July 1, 2025, 10:33 AM UTC

Almost Ready for a Megabill Vote

President Donald Trump’s $3.3 trillion tax and spending bill continues to test senators’ nerves and stamina. They pulled an all-nighter and are still at it.

As Ken Tran and Jack Fitzpatrick report in this morning’s BGOV Budget, after the Senate considered — and mostly rejected — a lot of proposed tweaks, Republican leaders are working on a final substitute amendment that can win over their party’s holdouts.

“It’s going to be a photo finish,” Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) told reporters.

With a 53-47 majority Republicans can lose just three votes and still pass the bill. And though they have a lot of incentive to satisfy Trump, the package also includes provisions with bipartisan opposition. Among them: provisions targeting Medicaid, food aid, and renewable energy.

One of the dynamics to watch isn’t on the Senate floor: a revival of Trump-Musk animosity. Elon Musk opposes the bill, Trump wants it on his desk, and they’re both on a social media roll.

Trump wrote that US funding for rocket launches, satellites and electric-car production would be worth some scrutiny: “BIG MONEY TO BE SAVED!!!”

“If this insane spending bill passes, the America Party will be formed the next day,” wrote Musk, saying his stance is based not on his own interests but on lawmakers’ failure to cut enough spending.

In addition to selling more EVs that are eligible for consumer incentives than any other company, Musk’s Tesla and its battery partner Panasonic Holdings Corp. are best positioned to receive production tax credits endangered by the big bill. Read More and dig into the details with our team coverage:

Mosquitos + Pythons + Alligators + Immigrants

The swamp is something Trump used to talk a lot about when he was a candidate. Back then swamp-draining was a metaphor for big changes in Washington.

Today he’s headed to an actual swamp: the Everglades, where the state of Florida is using FEMA money to quickly turn an old airstrip into a tents-and-trailers detention facility.

“There’s only one road leading in, and the only way out is a one-way flight,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. “It is isolated, and it is surrounded by dangerous wildlife and unforgiving terrain.”

The AP reports that DHS doubled down on “Alligator Alcatraz” as the nickname for the facility 45 miles west of Miami. It posted an image of alligators wearing hats with the acronym ICE, for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Eye on the Economy

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell tends to stay on-message in his public appearances, fully aware that his words are scrutinized for clues about what will happen with interest rates and when.

The next Powell-parsing opportunity comes today during a meeting in Portugal of the world’s top central bankers. Powell will join a panel discussion with his peers from other nations.

Though they’re all in the same boat, with responsibility over decisions that affect the prosperity of businesses and everyday citizens, for Powell the appearance comes as Trump amps up his public campaign to push policy-makers to give him the interest rate level he demands.

“We should be paying 1% Interest, or better!” Trump said yesterday in a social media post.

See Also: Car Sales Hit a Wall as Tariff-Induced Shopping Spree Subsides

What’s Next on Birthright Citizenship

One of the head-turning decisions as the Supreme Court ended its term upended the scope of restraining orders in cases challenging an executive order on automatic birthright citizenship.

As a followup step, a lower-court judge set a deadline of noon today for the Trump administration to provide written assurance that the government won’t try to deport impacted children during the Supreme Court’s 30-day pause on enforcement of an executive order.

Trump’s order would deny citizenship to the children of parents from other countries, including those in the US on temporary visas. The Supreme Court hasn’t ruled on the constitutionality of that order.

See also: Employers, Workers Brace for Fallout Over Nationwide Injunctions

Before You Go

A diplomatic page has been turned: A new executive order terminated US sanctions on Syria, effective today. Syria had been under US sanctions since its 1979 designation as a state sponsor of terrorism. Further sanctions were imposed in 2004 and in 2011, when civil war broke out and former President Bashar Al-Assad unleashed a brutal crackdown on his opponents. Now Assad is out and the US is supporting the new government. Read More

Advocacy Whack-a-Mole: Pharmaceutical manufacturers and their trade groups spent more than $150 million on federal lobbying last year, and are on pace to exceed that as they respond to such a fast-moving agenda that one lobbyist likened to a frustrating arcade game, Nyah Phengsitthy and Kate Ackley report. Read their deep dive into the lobbying operation of the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America.

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— With assistance from Ken Tran and Jack Fitzpatrick.

To contact the reporter on this story: Katherine Rizzo in Washington at krizzo@bgov.com

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Giuseppe Macri at gmacri@bgov.com; Herb Jackson at hjackson@bloombergindustry.com

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