Texas Remap May Have Domino Effect From New York to California

A new Texas congressional map enacted at President Donald Trump’s behest could prompt other states to follow suit in a redistricting arms race that could upend House elections.

The move has prompted threats by Democrats to redo the maps in states they control including California, New York, and Illinois, while GOP-dominated states such as Missouri and Ohio may try to expand their party’s House seat advantage.

A mid-decade redistricting binge, while potentially creating openings for both parties, also threatens to disrupt state legislative business and further exacerbate partisan tensions leading up to the 2026 elections. It also has made some lawmakers of both parties nervous about the prospect of campaigning for re-election next year in districts filled with new voters.

“The Trump administration’s bad faith analysis of Texas was the first and most important domino in a possible gerrymandering war that will prioritize partisan games across the country and leave our communities out in the cold,” Dan Vicuna, the senior policy director for voting and fair representation at Common Cause, told reporters last week.

The nation’s 435 House districts are typically adjusted only after each once-a-decade census, the last of which was in 2020, though there’s no state legal or constitutional impediment stopping Texas Republicans from replacing the map their party implemented just four years ago and which is being challenged in court. Democrats face more obstacles to reopening redistricting in states where they control government.

Texas’s Republican-dominated legislature is advancing a map designed to elect up to five more Republicans and extend the party’s tiny House majority through the end of Trump’s presidency. Most state House Democrats fled Texas Sunday to deny the legislature a quorum for a final vote on any new maps, prompting threats from Gov. Greg Abbott (R) to oust them from office.

Texas is “demonstrating the willingness to drive the car off the road – and by off the road, I mean off the road and over a cliff where there is no road whatsoever,” said Justin Levitt, a professor at Loyola Law School.

In addition to Texas, Republicans could also make gains in Ohio, where the current lines are expiring after four years under state law because the GOP enacted them without Democratic support. Republicans already hold 10 of 15 districts in Ohio, where they continue to dominate state government. A new map could endanger Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes, who won close re-election bids in 2024, and possibly Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman.

Republicans could also try to squeeze out another district in Missouri, where they could try to dismantle the Kansas City-area district of Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D). Missouri Republican legislators considered doing that in the regular 2022 redistricting before adopting the current map, which favors them in six of eight districts.

Indiana Republicans, who hold seven of nine districts, could try to dismantle the northwestern district of Rep. Frank Mrvan (D), which they resisted doing earlier this decade.

California Dreaming

Democrats’ best opportunity at combating Texas is in California, the nation’s most populous state.

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) told reporters last week he could call for a special election this November and ask his state’s Democratic-leaning voters “in a transparent way” to adopt new maps without abolishing the state’s independent redistricting commission, which adopted the current lines.

“We’re not here to eliminate the commission,” Newsom said. “We’re here to provide a pathway in ’26, ’28, and 2030 for congressional maps on the basis of a response to the rigging of the system by the president of the United States.”

Democrats hold 43 of 52 districts in California, though an aggressive Democratic gerrymander could net them several more. Targets could include Rep. Kevin Kiley (R), a leading Newsom critic who said Monday he’d introduce a bill that would ban mid-decade redistricting nationwide.

A new map for the 2026 election is less likely in New York, where the state constitution bars mid-decade redistricting unless directed by a court. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) said Monday she was exploring “every option to redraw our state congressional lines as soon as possible,” while noting that amending New York’s constitution requires an affirmative vote in two consecutive sessions of the legislature followed by a vote of the state’s electorate to approve changes.

“This could literally go on the ballot in the fall of ’27 and be enacted in time for the congressional races in 2028 as well as the presidential,” Hochul said at a press conference with some Texas Democratic legislators who fled the state. “So it is not the timeline that I would’ve preferred, but it does shave off four years from what would otherwise be the process.”

Democrats hold 19 of 26 districts in New York, where an independent commission draws lines subject to modification by a super-majority of the state legislature.

Louisiana Lawsuit

In Illinois, where Gov. JB Pritzker (D) also provided refuge for quorum-breaking Texas Democratic legislators, there’s no prohibition against the Democrat-dominated government pushing through a new map. Yet Democrats already control 14 of 17 districts under a gerrymander they engineered earlier this decade, and a new map might be politically risky.

In Maryland, where Democrats control state government, state House Majority Leader David Moon proposed legislation to allow Gov. Wes Moore or the legislature to submit a new congressional map if any other state engages in mid-decade redistricting. Democrats already control seven of eight congressional districts.

Legal challenges are pending to maps in some other states including Georgia. The US Supreme Court said last week it will hear additional arguments about whether a Louisiana map that added a second majority-Black district violates the Constitution, though any decision may not come in time to apply to the 2026 election.