Congressional Republicans’ ability to deliver President-elect Donald Trump’s ambitious agenda could well hinge on whether lawmakers can make it to work on time.
House Republicans will begin the 119th Congress with one of the smallest majorities in history, meaning they can’t afford more than a handful of absences to pass legislation if Democrats are united in opposition. Democrats, who face a Republican trifecta in government, will have a chance to block parts of the GOP agenda—but only if they too can get all of their members to Washington for the crucial votes.
“Do the math, we have nothing to spare,” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said at a press conference this week, adding that all Republicans will need to “row in the same direction.”
“We’ve developed an expertise in that we know how to work with a small majority. That’s our custom,” he said.
Republicans technically will have a 220-215 majority next year, but that margin will shrink at the outset of the session because two members, Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), plan to leave to be part of the Trump administration. A third former member, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), resigned his seat when he was initially tapped by Trump for Attorney General. Gaetz later dropped out because of concerns over an ethics investigation into his personal behavior.
A bill fails on a tie, so until special elections are held to fill those seats, Johnson won’t be able to spare any votes if Democrats can manage full attendance and hold together.
Near-perfect attendance will be crucial for GOP leaders to carry out Trump’s campaign promises, including tax cuts, an immigration crackdown, and overhaul of government programs. The GOP will also need cooperation to pass the fiscal 2025 budget that Congress is likely to punt into the new year.
“People are going to have things that happen to them. Family members pass away. Family members are sick. Members get sick,” said Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) “But I really think we just need to stress to everybody the responsibility to be here every day. And I think people will, unless there’s a real compelling reason.”
Democratic leaders are also stressing the need for their members to be in Washington.
“It’s important for every member to come to work and do their job—that’s what we’re telling our caucus,” Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar (Calif.) said. He acknowledged some members have experienced health issues that kept them from Washington for stretches, saying “it’s life.”
But “members ran for these jobs and were re-elected knowing that that was what they were experiencing, and if they asked their voters to send them to D.C. to do work, my expectation is that they’re going to come to D.C. to do work,” Aguilar added.
“We have to be clear about calling each other on the carpet when people are late to votes, when they don’t do a fly-in in time to get there, because this is absolutely critical,” said Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.).
House Republicans have held a narrow majority for the past two years, which has been an impediment to passing legislation, in part because of revolts from more conservative members.
Members of the 118th Congress have missed an average of 42 votes each so far, according to C-SPAN data analyzed by Bloomberg Government. That figure excludes members who left Congress early, as well as the speaker himself, who often doesn’t vote on bills.
House Republicans have a slightly better attendance record than their Democratic counterparts. GOP members missed an average of 39 votes so far in the 118th Congress, while Democrats missed an average of 45.
Extenuating Circumstances
The most absent members had extenuating circumstances that might not affect their voting next year. Natural Resources Ranking Member Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) missed 451 votes while away for cancer treatments, and GOP hardliner Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) missed 367 votes when she had a baby last year.
The period away from Washington has prompted Luna to call for a narrow proxy voting allowance for new mothers. When he was in charge, Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) ended proxy voting, which former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif. ) began during the Covid-19 pandemic when lawmakers were worried about traveling. While Luna’s proposal has bipartisan backing, Johnson and others oppose it, making it an uphill battle to secure the rule next year.
If Luna’s proxy voting rule fails, a Democratic lawmaker will initially be the most affected. Rep. Brittany Pettersen (D-Colo.) is pregnant and due in January, so she’ll probably have to miss some time in Washington when the new Congress gavels in.
“The current prohibition on proxy voting forces pregnant members and members who have recently welcomed a new child to choose between taking care of their newborn” and voting for bills, Pettersen told the House Rules Committee in September.
Aside from new parents, medical issues are often the reason for members’ absences. Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), who underwent treatment for blood cancer earlier this year, missed 124 votes this Congress.
Johnson understands the risks of managing a tiny majority. Republicans initially narrowly failed to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas in February when they lost a vote on a tie because of a handful of GOP defections and Scalise’s absence. Democrats, meanwhile, rallied as Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) was wheeled into the chamber, wearing hospital scrub pants and no shoes, to oppose it. Republicans were later able to impeach Mayorkas after Scalise returned to the chamber.
Republicans can expect more dramatic floor episodes in the 119th Congress with virtually no GOP cushion—especially since just one moderate or hard-right conservative could derail a party-line bill.
Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) said he wouldn’t be surprised if Democrats tried to seize the advantage if Republicans didn’t show up.
“If they’re smart, they would, right?” he said. “That’s the idea of a majority.”
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