Texas Republicans are divided, and President Donald Trump’s silence about a top-tier Senate race is creating a larger gap as Democrats try to make good on their decades-long goal of turning Texas blue.
State lawmakers are warning against Trump supporting Sen.
Senators, on the other hand, are pressing the White House to support the incumbent, who they see as the more electable candidate in November.
The GOP Senate runoff has become a test of Trump’s influence ahead of the 2026 midterms and a closely watched early signal of how he may shape Republican primaries involving incumbents.
The president said on March 14 he would decide on the Texas runoff “over the next week or so,” though Trump hasn’t always hewed closely to deadlines. He added that he likes “both candidates very much” and believes either could defeat the Democratic nominee, state Rep. James Talarico, who won his party’s nomination outright and can prepare for November as Cornyn and Paxton prolong their internecine warfare through the May 26 runoff.
Neither Republican candidate withdrew before Tuesday’s 5 p.m. deadline to remove their name from the ballot, raising the stakes in a race drawing national attention. The White House didn’t respond to a request for comment.
So far, Trump has issued dual endorsements to hedge his bets and ensure he’s aligned with the likely winner.
“Trump really does hold all the cards. He can virtually lock things away for Paxton and transform Cornyn from the underdog to the prohibitive favorite,” said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University.
Some conservative groups have stayed out. The Club for Growth and Heritage Action both said they aren’t endorsing in the runoff.
“We have not and will not be endorsing candidates,” said Stefani E. Buhajala, communications and marketing director for Heritage Action.
GOP Divide
Several Texas Republicans, including state lawmakers aligned with the party’s conservative base, have cautioned Trump against backing Cornyn, arguing the longtime senator could struggle to energize the party’s base.
“Republican primary voters, who tend to be the most influential group in Texas, are also split, with probably a few more favoring Paxton over Cornyn,” Jones said. “The wrinkle is to what extent these legislators view Paxton as a liability to the entire Texas Republican Party.”
Dozens of Texas lawmakers will travel to Washington this week for a legislative conference, where some said they plan to raise the race if given the opportunity.
“We have concerns that Senate leadership is giving President Trump bad advice, and we hope he’ll strongly take into consideration the amount of support that Paxton has,” said state Rep. Wes Virdell (R), an early Paxton backer.
That view contrasts with pressure from Senate Republican who leaders have urged Trump to back Cornyn, arguing he is better positioned to win in November and protect the party’s narrow majority.
“John Cornyn is a battle-tested conservative with a proven record of working with President Trump to deliver for Texans,” said Joanna Rodriguez, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “He is the only candidate in this race that will beat ’God is nonbinary’ James Talarico and secure Republicans’ Senate majority.”
Cornyn’s campaign has made a similar case.
“Sen. Cornyn has voted with President Trump 99.3% of the time he’s been in office,” said senior adviser Matt Mackowiak. “He’s the strongest GOP nominee in the general election, which will help the GOP pick up five new House seats.”
Cornyn also has the backing of the US Chamber of Commerce.
But Paxton’s supporters in Texas argue the national party is misreading the state’s electorate.
Cornyn “has disillusioned a number of Republican voters here in Texas,” said state Rep. AJ Louderback (R). “Paxton is very popular and has done a great job supporting our constituents here in Texas.”
Cornyn also retains support among some state lawmakers.
“We’ll suffer significant losses downballot if Paxton is our Senate nominee,” said state Rep. Matt Shaheen (R) of Plano.
Senate Stakes
Both candidates have aligned themselves with Trump and his priorities, particularly the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, or SAVE America Act (S. 1383; BGOV Bill Analysis), which would require documentary proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections.
Cornyn has signaled openness to eliminating the filibuster to advance the bill, a move Paxton’s allies say is politically motivated.
“He’s only doing it to help him in this election,” Virdell said.
Paxton has emphasized his alignment with Trump, at one point suggesting he would consider dropping out if Republicans advanced the SAVE Act legislation, a proposal many viewed as unlikely given opposition to eliminating the filibuster and resistance within the Senate conference.
Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since 1994, but the race is taking on outsize importance in the fight for Senate control, where Democrats need a net gain of four seats. The Cornyn-Paxton melee has pushed Texas into the top tier of red-state battlegrounds alongside Alaska and Ohio, even after Trump carried the state by 14 points in 2024.
For now, both sides are continuing to make their case as Trump weighs his decision—one that could shape not only the outcome of the Texas race but also the GOP’s strategy heading into 2026.
— With assistance from Greg Giroux and Kate Ackley.
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