President Donald Trump’s escalating trade dispute with Canada may make a northern New York border district more competitive for House Democrats in an upcoming special election that could attract national attention.
The seat in question, in New York’s 21st District, is currently held by Rep. Elise Stefanik (R) but will be open if the Senate confirms her as Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations. The vast House district, which includes New York’s North Country and abuts Ontario and Quebec, is a Republican stronghold that favored Trump by 21 percentage points in 2024, so Republicans have a significant early advantage and a Democratic win would be a stunning upset.
Yet there are signs it could end up being a closer contest.
Historically, the party in control of the White House often underperforms in lower-turnout special elections. Add to that a well-funded Democrat who has been campaigning for months, and Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canadian goods, and you could have the recipe for a tight contest in an agricultural district reliant on cross-border trade. A prolonged trade conflict could antagonize voters who link tariffs to rising consumer prices.
The deteriorating US-Canada relationship “could work to the Democrats’ favor”, Phil Nicholas, a lecturer of American politics at the University of Albany, said in an interview. However, it is not clear “how long this tariff posture of Trump is going to continue, or if he’ll move on to do something else,” Nicholas said.
Congressional Consequences
If the seat does surprisingly swing to the Democrats, it would send shockwaves through Washington politics and weaken the already fragile House Republican majority, putting the ability to advance Trump’s agenda at risk. Even a close GOP victory could underscore the party’s vulnerability before the 2026 midterm elections.
A special election date is still to be determined. Stefanik’s Senate confirmation vote has been stuck in limbo for weeks because House Republicans, nursing a tiny 218-213 majority, cannot afford to sacrifice a single vote as they push to advance the party’s legislative priorities.
Under current New York law, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) has 10 days after a vacancy is created to call a special election that must be held 70 to 80 days thereafter. If Stefanik is confirmed and resigns shortly after April 1, when Republicans are favored to win two special elections in Florida and boost the GOP majority, a contest to fill her vacant seat would be held in late June or early July.
Democratic Candidate Chosen
Nominees in the special election will be chosen by county party organizations, not voters in primaries. Democratic officials already have settled on their candidate: Blake Gendebien, a dairy farmer who’s raised $2 million since he began his underdog campaign in early December.
“Washington has forgotten the people in the North Country and in District 21,” he said in an interview. “I want to be running as a champion for freedom and fairness and an honest voice for my friends and neighbors in the community that raised me.”
Gendebien, who grew up in Lisbon, N.Y., a small town near the US-Canada border, said the district’s many elderly residents on fixed incomes “cannot withstand the aftermath of blanket 25% tariffs on Canada. And we’re not even talking about the retaliatory tariffs that hurt farmers and other businesses as well.”
Trump imposed tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel and threatened levies against Canadian lumber and dairy. Canada retaliated, including with $21 billion in counter-tariffs announced last week. Canadians have been urged not to vacation in the US, which could hurt the economy in tourist destinations like the district’s Adirondacks region.
Republican Field
The Republican candidate field is more in flux, with more than half a dozen hopefuls including:
- State Reps. Chris Tague and Robert Smullen
- State Sen. Dan Stec, who previously served in the state House and as a county supervisor
- Two-time former congressional candidate Liz Joy, who lost in 2020 and 2022 to Rep. Paul Tonko (D) in the state’s 20th District
- Anthony Constantino, a printing company owner who has attracted attention for his pro-Trump signs and statue
Tague, a former dairy farmer and Schoharie town supervisor who’s worked on state agricultural policy in the legislature, touted his long service in local Republican politics.
“I’m a reliable, loyal, proven officeholder that will make my party and the people that I represent proud,” he said in an interview.
He also defended Trump on US-Canada trade policy, saying the president is engaging in “negotiation tactics” to get a fair agreement for the US.
Smullen, who served 24 years in the Marines, including three tours in Afghanistan, said he’s “ready for a new mission” and being part of a Republican-led government would be a “once-in-a-generation opportunity to reduce spending and cut taxes at the same time.”
“I’ve got the stamina for a 90-day campaign that’s going to be a huge blitz of time and effort,” Smullen said in an interview.
Stec, who represents a border district, has blasted New York’s “Green Light Law” allowing undocumented immigrants to obtain state identification while shielding their data from federal authorities.
Constantino loaned his campaign $2.6 million and is the only Republican candidate to have filed a fundraising report so far.
The Trump Factor
One wild card is Trump, who could sway the decision-making of GOP county chairs if he endorses. Stefanik may join him.
One challenge for Gendebien is distinguishing himself from an unpopular national Democratic Party brand.
Ed Cox, the chairman of the New York State Republican Party, linked Gendebien to Hochul and described him as “another Far Left Democrat trying to lie to convince North Country voters otherwise.”
It is unclear if Democratic groups or super-PACs will intervene in the special election.
“Traditionally, that’s more of a red district,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Suzan DelBene (Wash.) said in an interview with Bloomberg Government reporters and editors. “But these are unusual times.”
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