President-elect Donald Trump’s ambitious immigration enforcement agenda will carry a hefty price tag, and lawmakers who oversee government spending are grappling with how to foot the bill.
Cost estimates are a moving target, depending on the operation’s scope and specifics. Trump has pledged to make it the biggest deportation effort in US history, no matter the price to taxpayers. The new administration has a few options for funding its plans and will turn to Congress for many of the resources needed. Some lawmakers have aired skepticism about paying for a rapid ramp-up of removals, while others are bullish about making it happen.
“Any type of excuse for inaction will not be tolerated by the American people, so I think you put all options on the table, you listen to the vision of the president, and then it is our job to figure out how we execute that to the best of our ability,” said Katie Britt (Ala.), the top Republican senator overseeing homeland security appropriations who’s seeking the subcommittee gavel in the next Congress.
More than 11 million immigrants are estimated to live in the US without authorization, and a comprehensive deportation scheme would cost billions of dollars. One group estimates the cost at $315 billion, more than five times the Department of Homeland Security’s discretionary budget for fiscal 2024.
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“I’ve worked with the budget for many years for homeland,” he said. “It takes time to hire people and to build up the capacity so it might be a few years on that.”
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Cost Estimates
The number of people the future Trump administration targets for deportation, the speed of removals, and the array of government entities involved will affect the final costs. Transition team officials didn’t address specific questions about the scope of Trump’s plans but emphasized their focus on deporting criminals.
“President Trump will marshal every federal and state power necessary to institute the largest deportation operation of illegal criminals, drug dealers, and human traffickers in American history while simultaneously lowering costs for families,” transition spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.
Officials could start with the more than 600,000 individuals on Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s docket who have criminal convictions or pending charges that range from murder and assault to traffic offenses. Others likely to be targeted are those whose immigration cases have already concluded and resulted in final orders of removal.
The American Immigration Council, which opposes mass deportation efforts, calculated that a one-time operation to deport the 11 million undocumented immigrants in the US as of the latest estimate in 2022, plus about 2 million more recent arrivals, would cost at least $315 billion. That’s almost $90 billion for arrests, more than $167 billion for detention, $34 billion for legal processing, and $24 billion on removals.
A more phased approach of deporting 1 million immigrants each year would cost about $88 billion annually, the group assessed. The estimates are based on data from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey and current immigration enforcement costs.
‘Nothing’s Cheap’
Congressional appropriators are preparing for next year, when Trump is likely to ask for an influx of border and immigration enforcement money.
“I don’t know whether they’re expensive or cheap, probably nothing’s cheap,”
Amodei previewed tough choices appropriators face to ensure DHS’s sprawling portfolio — which includes the Secret Service, Coast Guard, cybersecurity, and other missions — gets enough money even as Trump looks to allies
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“I’m sure that Elon Musk and Vivek aren’t going to be going, ‘Keep your hands off Homeland,’” Amodei said. “Because if you believe that there’s money to be saved everywhere, then it’s like, well, OK, let’s see if there’s money to be saved everywhere.”
Fellow Republicans already have ideas of where to make cuts. Britt noted the Shelter and Services Program, which reimburses local governments and nonprofits for the cost of migrant care. It got $650 million in fiscal 2024. Sen.
Other Funding Options
Lawmakers also have options outside the annual appropriations process to fund Trump’s immigration agenda, and the president-elect may try to bypass Congress for some of his plans.
GOP control of both chambers of Congress lets lawmakers use budget reconciliation, allowing them to pass budget-related measures on a simple majority, instead of the 60 votes the Senate typically requires. Senate rules blocked Democrats from using reconciliation for immigration changes last Congress, but Republicans see a path for some of their priorities, including border wall funding.
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“Every single thing that we can get through the Senate we will do, and we are working judiciously to find what fits the Byrd rule and what doesn’t,” House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Mark Green (R-Tenn.) said, referring to the Senate rule that restricts what can be included.
Trump may also take a page from his first-term playbook by issuing a border-related emergency declaration to unlock funding from other government coffers, though that’s likely to land in the courts.
“He obviously in the past has been willing to move money from one account to another and let the courts decide whether that’s constitutional,” said Sen.
Amodei cautioned that all immigration spending should be transparent.
“I’m not interested in creative funding,” he said.
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