A push by President Donald Trump to tighten mail-in voting rules could backfire on the Republican Party, which increasingly depends on voters who use that option to win elections, experts and lawmakers say.
Trump has called for limiting mail-in ballots with only a few exceptions, a step he falsely claims is necessary because of fraudulent voting in his 2020 defeat by Joe Biden. It comes as part of a broader effort by the White House and the hard right to pass the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, or SAVE America Act (S. 1383; BGOV Bill Analysis), which would require voters to show documentary proof of citizenship when registering.
The legislation doesn’t specifically limit voting by mail, although attempts to attach restrictions on mail-in voting could be made when the bill comes up in the Senate this week. Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) said Monday he’s working on an amendment to get “rid of this mass mail-in balloting scam” with some allowances for military and elderly voters.
Research has generally found that vote-by-mail laws don’t consistently favor one party over the other. For example, in Utah, a reliably Republican state where ballots are mailed to all active, registered voters, most of the votes in the 2024 general election were cast by mail or drop box.
“Once they started mail-in voting, people just loved it,” Utah state Rep. Christine Watkins (R), who represents a rural district in the state, said. “I know federal law trumps us—no pun intended—but people here wouldn’t like” getting rid of mail voting.
Along with the federal push, lawmakers in several red states have introduced bills tightening mail voting rules. According to the Voting Rights Lab, 43 restrictive bills have been proposed across 19 states this year.
Campaign Implications
The national parties have staked out opposing positions.
Republicans and the Republican National Committee have backed lawsuits seeking to require ballots to be received by Election Day, while Democrats warn that tighter rules could make it harder for voters who rely on the postal system.
“The RNC always stands with President Trump’s mission to secure our elections,” Ally Triolo, RNC Elections Integrity communications director, said in a statement. “As the RNC works to protect the ballot box, Congress should pass the SAVE America Act immediately to do the same.”
With control of Congress expected to hinge on a small number of competitive House and Senate races in 2026, strategists in both parties are closely watching how changes to mail-voting rules could affect turnout in key districts.
“Mail ballots can be the difference between winning and losing,” Matt Wylie, a GOP strategist based in South Carolina, said. “If voters who normally cast ballots by mail have to show up on Election Day instead, fewer Republicans will. You risk losing seats you shouldn’t lose by going to war with something that can be a valuable tool.”
While Republican lawmakers broadly back requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote—something they say would bolster election security—some analysts warn that changes affecting mail ballots carry different political considerations.
Senate Majority Leader
When asked about banning mail-in voting, Thune said “ballot harvesting” was the “real threat,” referring to the practice of collecting and submitting ballots on behalf of other voters.
“As a general rule, if people are requesting ballots, and they’ve got legitimate reasons for requesting them, I think a lot of states use that process and use it pretty well,” Thune told reporters on March 11.
Analysts say restricting mail voting could lead to lower voter turnout. About 64% of eligible voters participated in the 2024 presidential election and 46% for the 2022 midterms, according to the Pew Research Center. About 29% of voters cast ballots by mail in 2024, while nearly one-third did so in 2022, according to the US Census Bureau.
“When you roll back that opportunity, it’s naturally going to diminish turnout,” said Daniel Griffith, the senior policy director for Secure Democracy USA. “So it certainly could have the opportunity to backfire.”
State Approach
In Utah, lawmakers last year approved legislation aimed at tightening the state’s vote-by-mail system. The measure (H.B. 300) added new identification requirements for voters returning ballots and shortened the period for counting them.
Some Republican officials say the system has long worked well for voters of all political stripes.
Any effort to limit absentee voting “would have an outsized impact on voters in Utah,” said Ricky Hatch, clerk and auditor in Weber County, Utah, who has held the role since 2011. He noted studies have show that vote by mail increases turnout by 4% to 9%.
Similar debates are playing out elsewhere.
In Arizona, the Republican-led legislature is debating a ballot measure (H.C.R. 2001) that would end the state’s permanent absentee voting list and require voters seeking mail ballots to provide documentary proof of citizenship and periodically confirm their address. Current law allows any voter to request a mail ballot or join the permanent absentee list.
According to Griffith, many of the bills introduced this year affecting mail voting focus on moving up deadlines for receiving ballots.
In Mississippi, one measure (H.B. 908) would require absentee ballots to be received the day before the election. Current law allows ballots to be counted if they arrive up to five days after Election Day. The bill has passed both legislative chambers.
The politics can be complicated in rural areas where distances to polling places are long. Limiting rural votes could have direct implications for Republicans campaigns.
“I like the idea of the individual states being able to control their own election process,” said Sen.
— With assistance from Lillianna Byington.
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