President Donald Trump had an ambitious 2025, but he will have to shift his focus in 2026 if he wants to help Republicans keep control of Capitol Hill.
While Trump has ruled out asking Congress for a second reconciliation package, he will be engaged with Capitol Hill on several fronts, including a fight to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies and a spending deal to avert another government shutdown on Jan. 30.
Some House Republicans are pessimistic about their chances next November without more assistance from Trump.
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“This is a historic time. We had a historic moment, and we shoved it this year,” Mace said at an exclusive Bloomberg Government roundtable. “We’re going to lose the midterms in the House. I think the Senate is at risk because we haven’t been doing enough.”
Trump started to pivot in December, suggesting he wants to reset and drive the agenda ahead of the elections.
He announced bonuses for military members, dubbed “Warrior Dividends,” hit the road on an affordability tour, and rescheduled marijuana from a Schedule I drug to a less dangerous substance — an issue long championed by Democrats.
In his prime-time address earlier this month, Trump teased some of his New Year initiatives, including tapping the next Federal Reserve chair, lowering mortgage payments, and announcing “some of the most aggressive housing reform plans in American history.”
“You will see in your wallets and bank accounts in the new year, after years of record-setting, falling incomes, our policies are boosting take-home pay at a historic pace,” Trump said.
Here’s how Trump will shape the conversation in 2026.
Economy and Affordability
Trump is making cost of living and the economy a central focus of his presidency, whether he wants to or not.
The White House has struggled to find an effective affordability message — calling the concept a “hoax” and Democratic “scam” — frustrating his party and allowing Democrats weaponize his words.
Vulnerable congressional Republicans said they haven’t received guidance from the administration on this issue and remain stuck in a cycle of asking voters to be patient with the economy.
Republicans are hoping tax relief and other policy measures will kick in next spring, so expect the GOP to hammer home the benefits of the massive tax and spending package that featured as their primary accomplishment in 2025.
The GOP will also continue to blame former President Joe Biden for the state of the economy, but it’s unclear how effective that messaging will be as some Republicans want Trump to move on from Biden.
Democrats believe affordability concerns are issues they can ride to win back the House.
“These people promised to lower the cost of living on day one, but they failed to do it in year one,” Minority Leader
Health Care
Trump has mostly avoided health care, but Democrats, with the help of four frustrated House Republicans, forced a floor vote on extending ACA subsidies in January, likely compelling him to weigh in.
Doug Heye, a GOP strategist, said Republicans must grapple with what their alternative plan is rather than just focusing on what they’re against — an issue they have struggled with for 15 years.
Heye said with the ACA credits expiring, Republicans have to find a way to say Democrats are to blame for skyrocketing health premiums.
“Once they expire and once we get into the new year, there will be new political pressures,” Heye said.
House Republicans have passed a party-line bill that aims to lower premiums for some people and reduce overall subsidies.
Trump’s health care messaging has been sparse besides saying he wants people to be able to buy their own health care.
Tariffs
Much of Trump’s signature economic policy — sweeping tariffs — is in the hands of the Supreme Court, which could rule on the legality of his tariff push in January.
While administration officials have brushed off a possible Supreme Court loss, there are alternative options Trump could take to implement tariffs.
He could use two statutes to implement tariffs. Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 would allow Trump to impose a tariff up to 15% to address balance-of-payments deficits.
The other measure is Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, which allows the president to impose tariffs up to 50% if another country is discriminating against US trade policies.
Various Views
Congressional Republicans, meanwhile, aren’t united on one issue they want to hear Trump stress.
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“He’s been pretty supportive of addressing housing affordability,” Flood said. “We’re on the same page.
Other lawmakers want to focus on border security or economic recovery. Military hawks want more transparency about foreign policy decisions.
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“We have to make sure we have the right laws in place and make sure we have the regulations,” Latta said.
Rep. Rick Allen (R-Ga.) said he’d like input from Trump on a funding deal at the end of January that would lead to less federal spending — a priority for many Republicans.
“That’s probably the biggest obstacle,” Allen said. “We’re going to have to rein in spending and agree on it by January 30 so we don’t have another government shutdown. That costs the economy billions, and it makes no sense to hold the American people hostage.”
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