Republicans Near Trifecta With Democrats’ House Hopes Fading (1)

Democrats’ hopes for a powerful check on Donald Trump by controlling the US House are fading, with Republicans increasingly confident they will hold unified control in Washington ahead of next year’s big fights over tax cuts and spending.

Democrats need a net gain of just four House seats to wrest the slim majority from Republicans, but GOP gains in races in Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina have offset losses in New York, putting the party ahead in its bid to retain control of the chamber.

House Speaker Mike Johnson took a victory lap on Wednesday, declaring Republicans poised to keep their control of the chamber. Hakeem Jeffries, the House Democratic leader, countered that his party could still eke out a narrow majority by flipping seats in California, Arizona and elsewhere.

Mike Johnson

Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg

“The party that will hold the majority in the House of Representatives in January 2025 has yet to be determined,” Jeffries said.

Most of the key battleground races remain too close to call — particularly in notoriously slow-counting California — so it could be days before it’s clear which party will claim the speaker’s gavel. To understand how close the struggle for the House is, most of the 22 toss-up races still have not been called by midday Wednesday. And counting was ongoing in other competitive districts.

Read More: Live Maps of 2024 US Election Results

Democratic House control would force Republicans to negotiate on trillions of dollars worth of provisions in the 2017 tax law that expire at the end of next year. It also would provide a check on Trump’s “America First” foreign policy agenda, providing perhaps some hope to Ukraine and other allies of continued support.

The House under Democratic control also impeached Trump twice during his first term in office. He was never convicted by the Senate.

Trump swept key battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, closing Vice President Kamala Harris’ pathway to the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the White House.

Republicans won control of the Senate with at least 52 seats, with several others still too close to call. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell called the election “a helluva good day” at a Wednesday press conference, even as he signaled he could be a speed bump to Trump and his isolationist allies.

Read More: Republicans Win Control of US Senate Ahead of Critical Tax Fight

Flipped Republican seats include those held by freshmen Brandon Williams, who represents a district around Syracuse, and Marc Molinaro, whose district includes parts of the Catskills, the Hudson Valley and the Finger Lakes.

The two seats Democrats picked up in Louisiana and Alabama, thanks to redistricting, were more than offset by three expected Republican pickups in redrawn districts in North Carolina, creating a see-saw effect as returns continued to come in.

The battle for the House could ultimately come down to five hard-fought races in California, where absentee ballots can be counted for up to a week after the election provided they’re postmarked by Election Day.

(Updates with statements in third and fourth paragraphs)

--With assistance from Clarissa Batino.

To contact the reporters on this story:
Steven T. Dennis in Washington at sdennis17@bloomberg.net;
Billy House in Washington at bhouse5@bloomberg.net;
Daniel Flatley in Washington at dflatley1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Megan Scully at mscully32@bloomberg.net

Mike Dorning

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