Democrats gained more momentum in their bid to win the House this fall after Virginia backed an aggressive mid-decade redistricting plan to oust up to four Republicans in November.
In a statewide referendum election Tuesday, Virginia voted 51% to 49% for a proposed constitutional amendment to allow a redrawing of the state’s congressional maps by the Democratic legislature. The new lines will make Democrats favored in as many as 10 of 11 House districts; they currently hold six seats.
The result is a setback for President Donald Trump and his razor-thin House Republican majority, which was already at risk because of the president’s sagging approval rating. Democrats need a net gain of three seats for a majority.
“If they get these additional seats, they’re going to be making changes at the federal level,” Trump said of Democrats in an April 20 radio interview on The John Fredericks Show.
Virginia’s new congressional map makes it harder for Republican Reps. Rob Wittman, Jen Kiggans, John McGuire, and Ben Cline to win reelection. Kiggans faces ex-Rep. Elaine Luria (D) in a rematch of their 2022 matchup.
The new lines also boost first-term Democratic Reps. Eugene Vindman and Suhas Subramanyam, who won close elections in 2024.
The redistricting referendum drew more than $81 million in advertising, according to AdImpact. More than $56 million of that came from the Democratic-funded “yes” side, which prominently featured former President Barack Obama and Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D).
The Virginia Supreme Court is considering a Republican lawsuit that alleges that Democrats broke Virginia law and the state constitution in the manner in which they advanced the proposed constitutional amendment through the legislative process. Other legal challenges are possible.
Florida Fallout
The Democratic victory in Virginia may ramp up pressure on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and the Republican legislature to push for a more GOP-friendly map in a special legislative session set to convene April 28. Some Republicans have cautioned that muscling through an aggressive gerrymander is either not feasible or could backfire.
Republicans already control 20 of 28 House districts in Florida, and Democrats have said an even more GOP-skewing map would violate the state constitution’s “Fair Districts” amendments that prohibit drawing election districts that intentionally favor or disfavor incumbents or political parties.
A new Florida map “will only create more prime pick-up opportunities for Democrats,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said in a statement.
Hitting Back
Advocates framed their Virginia campaign as a temporary and emergency response to counteract new partisan Republican maps in states including Texas, which ignited a fractious mid-decade redistricting war last summer at Trump’s urging.
“Virginians really stepped up tonight and over the course of early voting to push back on an assault on fairness in our national democracy,” Kelly Hall, executive director of The Fairness Project, a progressive advocacy group that funds ballot initiative campaigns, said.
The Fairness Project provided more than $12 million to the main Democratic-led campaign organization, Virginians for Fair Elections. House Majority Forward, a nonprofit affiliate of the House Majority PAC (HMP) super PAC working to elect a Democratic majority, contributed more than $38 million.
“We fought back. When they go low, we hit back hard,” Jeffries said.
Virginia Republicans denounced the referendum, casting it as an unfair power grab in a mildly Democratic state that Trump lost by just 6 percentage points in the 2024 election. Opponents also argued the state overwhelmingly voted in 2020 to establish a bipartisan redistricting commission to handle line-drawing responsibilities.
“This close margin reinforces that Virginia is a purple state that shouldn’t be represented by a severe partisan gerrymander,” National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Richard Hudson (N.C.) said in a statement.
The constitutional amendment directs the redistricting commission to redraw lines next in 2031, after the next decennial census. Virginia elected six Democrats and five Republicans to the House in 2022 and 2024 under maps the Virginia Supreme Court adopted in late 2021 after the commission couldn’t agree on new lines.
The Virginia election marked the most competitive fight over new maps in any state this election cycle.
Texas Republican lawmakers complied with Trump’s request to enact a replacement map that could give Republicans up to five more House seats. Republican governments in Ohio, Missouri, and North Carolina greenlit maps that together could elect up to four additional Republicans. The GOP may fall short of those anticipated gains in a difficult midterm election environment for the governing party.
In overwhelmingly Democratic California, voters last November responded by easily adopting a replacement map that could deliver Democrats up to five more districts — matching or even exceeding expected GOP gains in Texas. A Utah court adopted a replacement map under which Democrats are likely to pick up a seat.
Neither party seems likely to secure a clear edge from redistricting in 2026. The US Supreme Court will soon issue a ruling that could restrict the intentional creation of majority-Black or Hispanic districts, though its effect on this year’s election will be limited as more state primaries and candidate qualifying deadlines pass.
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