A few key spring elections could make a lot of difference in November, as congressional candidates put their parties through potentially messy and money-draining primaries in swing districts.
In Ohio and California, Republican primaries pit the party establishment against hard-right conservatives who more tightly align with ex-President Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement. Democratic primaries in New Jersey and Oregon are setting progressive activists against the center-left.
When party leaders can’t avoid fractious primaries, they’d prefer to have as much time as possible to replenish treasuries and put differences aside to focus to defending — or ending — the narrow GOP control of the US House.
BGOV OnPoint: US House Elections
“Generally, leadership prefers uncontested primaries because things can get into ‘general election mode’ quicker, and the candidates can save money with an eye to the fall campaign,” J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said in an email. “Candidates emerging from divisive primaries can be ‘hamstrung’ ahead of the quick fall sprint.”
Here are some of the US House districts with contested primaries worth watching.
California’s 22nd District
Former state assemblyman Rudy Salas (D) is again opposing Rep. David Valadao (R) in what would be a rematch of a 2022 race that Valadao won by 3 percentage points.
Salas was the only Democrat on the 2022 primary ballot but this time is competing for Democratic votes with state Sen. Melissa Hurtado. Ex-Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) endorsed Salas.
Under California’s “Top 2” primary rules, all candidates will run on the same March 5 ballot and the top two vote-getters will advance to the November general election regardless of party.
Valadao is once again opposed on the right by Chris Mathys, a cattle rancher and former Fresno city councilmember who came within 2.2 percentage points of ousting Valadao in the 2022 primary after Valadao voted to impeach Trump for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol.
If Valadao is ousted in the March 5 primary, it could jeopardize the Republican Party’s hold of a low-income, Hispanic-majority agricultural district President Joe Biden won by 13 percentage points in 2020.
California’s 47th District
Democratic voters are weighing who should defend a competitive Orange County district Rep. Katie Porter (D) is leaving open to run for Senate.
State Sen. Dave Min has promoted Porter’s early endorsement and his ties to the district’s large Asian American community. His opponent Joanna Weiss, a lawyer and community activist, says Min’s misdemeanor DUI arrest in May weakens him for a general election. Weiss’s backers include Emily’s List, which funds Democratic women who support abortion rights.
Min or Weiss probably will come in second in the March primary behind Republican Scott Baugh, a former California assemblymember who lost to Porter in 2022.
Maine’s 2nd District
Rep. Jared Golden, a Democratic moderate from a rural pro-Trump district, will face the winner of a Republican primary between two state representatives: Austin Theriault, a former NASCAR driver backed by House Republican leaders, and Mike Soboleski, a Marine Corps veteran who’s running as a more aggressively pro-Trump candidate. The primary is June 11.
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New Jersey’s 7th District
Sue Altman, a progressive activist who led New Jersey’s Working Families Party, and Jason Blazakis, a former US State Department official, are the leading Democrats in the June 4 primary seeking to unseat one-term Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R).
Blazakis won the endorsement of the NewDem Action Fund, the political arm of the center-left New Democrat Coalition that’s the ideological home of House Democratic moderates. The district is among the 18 nationwide that voted Republican for House in 2022 after preferring Biden two years earlier.
North Carolina’s 1st District
Republicans will decide whether their nominee against first-term Rep. Don Davis (D) should be Sandy Smith, who had Trump’s endorsement in her 5-point loss to Davis in 2022, or newcomer Laurie Buckhout, a retired Army colonel who seeded her campaign with $1 million.
Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House Republican super PAC, opposed Smith in the 2022 primary and may intervene to aid Buckhout in the March 5 primary. The Republican legislature in 2023 redrew the northeastern 1st to be more politically competitive.
Ohio’s 9th District
JR Majewski (R), an Air Force veteran and Trump acolyte who was at the US Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, is seeking a rematch with Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) after decisively losing a 2022 bid following news reports he misrepresented his military service.
House Republican leaders initially backed former state Rep. Craig Riedel, who lost to Majewski in the 2022 Republican primary. But Riedel was hurt by a leaked audio recording in which he described Trump as “arrogant” and said he wasn’t seeking the ex-president’s endorsement.
Riedel responded with a statement endorsing Trump and an ad brandishing some of Majewski’s past criticism of the ex-president. But Riedel could lose establishment support to state Rep. Derek Merrin, who entered the March 19 primary on the Dec. 20 filing deadline.
Oregon’s 5th District
Democratic voters will decide whether their November standard-bearer should again be Jamie McLeod-Skinner, a progressive lawyer who unseated then-Rep. Kurt Schrader in the 2022 primary before losing to Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer in a district that preferred Biden in 2020.
Gov. Tina Kotek (D) and the NewDem Action Fund are instead backing state Rep. Janelle Bynum, who would be the first Black person to represent Oregon in Congress. The primary is May 21.
Washington’s 3rd District
Joe Kent (R), a pro-Trump Army veteran, wants a rematch with Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) after losing to her by less than one percentage point in an open-seat 2022 election. Kent ousted then-Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R), who voted to impeach Trump. Gluesenkamp Perez is the only House Democrat first elected in November 2022 from a district that preferred Trump.
Some current and former elected Republican officials in Washington state are instead supporting Leslie Lewallen, a Camas city councilwoman. Washington state, which uses a “Top 2" system similar to California’s, holds its primary Aug. 6.
Safe Districts
Other contested primaries are in politically one-sided districts that won’t be competitive in November but are worth watching for how they might expose intraparty fissures and reshape the Republican Conference and Democratic Caucus in the 119th Congress.
In North Carolina’s 6th District, now an open Republican-leaning district under new congressional lines, Trump has intervened to endorse Addison McDowell, a former House aide, over five other Republicans including ex-Rep. Mark Walker.
That March 5 primary, among the first on the 2024 political calendar, could be an early test of Trump’s ability to sway GOP voters in House primaries.
Some Democratic primaries will underline differences within the party over the US role in the Israel-Hamas war.
In New York’s 16th District, which under the current district map includes part of the Bronx and most of Westchester County north of New York City, progressive Rep. Jamaal Bowman drew a primary challenge from Westchester County Executive George Latimer after Bowman voted against a
Bowman said the resolution, which was the first of several resolutions considered after the Oct. 7 attack, “ignores measures towards long term peace” in a statement after the vote.
Latimer’s entry drew praise from pro-Israel groups including the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC. Bowman has called for an immediate de-escalation and ceasefire in the region.
New York’s highest court ordered new political lines for the 2024 election, so the constituencies those candidates need to court could change before the June 25 primary.
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