What the Tennessee Election Says About the 2026 Midterms (1)

Republicans won the battle in a ruby-red Tennessee district Tuesday. Democrats still have the edge in the broader campaign for control of the House in 2026.

A closer-than-expected special election suggests House Democrats can expand a tight map of battleground districts into more GOP-friendly terrain in President Donald Trump’s second midterm election. Republicans will be on defense as they try to keep their three-seat House majority.

Matt Van Epps (R), an Army combat veteran endorsed by Trump, defeated state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D) by 9 percentage points in Tennessee’s 7th District — yet another Democratic overperformance in a special election, this time in an area that favored the president by 22 points in 2024.

Despite their loss, Democrats will take heart in Behn slashing the party’s deficit in the district.

“I think it’s probably something that [Democrats] will recruit off of. Anytime you’ve cut the margin in half, that’s significant,” said Kent Syler, a political scientist at Middle Tennessee State University and a former Tennessee chief of staff and campaign manager to ex-Rep. Bart Gordon (D).

The Tennessee result could signal closer contests for other GOP-held seats, if the Democratic overperformance holds in the midterms and Trump’s sagging approval rating persists.

House Republicans hold 12 districts that backed Trump by fewer than 5 percentage points in 2024 and another 15 districts where the president’s margin of victory was between 5 points and 10 points. Three GOP-held districts voted for Kamala Harris, including a Nebraska district where Rep. Don Bacon (R) is retiring. Those numbers may change slightly after mid-decade redistricting before the 2026 election.

“If you’re a Republican in a district that Trump won by 10 points or fewer, you ought to be really nervous going into this midterm,” ex-Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.) said on CNN Tuesday.

Some single-digit Trump areas at risk for the GOP are frequent battlegrounds, such as the districts Reps. Derrick Van Orden (Wis.) and Juan Ciscomani (Ariz.) are defending, or the districts Reps. David Schweikert (Ariz.) and John James (Mich.) are leaving open to run for governor. Other House Republicans, such as Reps. Rob Wittman (Va.) and Bill Huizenga (Mich.), are new to Democratic target lists.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the campaign arm of House Democrats, is eyeing even redder turf like Kentucky’s 6th District, where Rep. Andy Barr (R) is running for Senate, and Tennessee’s 5th District, where Rep. Andy Ogles (R) could have a tough reelection in a constituency that favored Trump by 18 points.

Tuesday’s election result in the next-door 7th District “should scare the hell out of Andy Ogles,” said Nashville Metro Councilman Mike Cortese, who’s seeking the Democratic nomination.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said Tuesday that Republicans will buck historical patterns and expand their majority, highlighting accomplishments such as the president’s signature tax-cut law (Public Law 119-21).

One test of Johnson’s argument and clout will be if he can minimize Republican defeats and retirements in districts that were mildly pro-Trump in 2024.

The five special-election results in 2025 are comparable to the run-up to the 2018 election, when Democratic overperformances in special elections foretold big House gains for the party in Trump’s first midterm election.

In 2017, Republicans sweated out single-digit wins in GOP-friendly districts in Kansas, Montana, South Carolina, and Georgia. In March 2018, Conor Lamb (D-Pa.) flipped a district that had favored Trump by 20 points. In April 2018, Debbie Lesko (R-Ariz.) won by just 5 points in a district Trump won by 21 points. And that August, Republican groups spent millions to barely elect Troy Balderson (Ohio) in another double-digit Trump district.

Tennessee Signals

Michael Bednarczuk, a political scientist at Austin Peay State University in Clarksville, Tenn., said what stood out to him in Tuesday’s election was voter turnout. Participation was higher-than-average for a post-Thanksgiving contest, partly because of the national attention and millions of dollars in outside spending showered on the district.

Behn received more than 81,000 votes, topping the 69,000 votes that then-Rep. Mark Green’s (R) Democratic opponent won in the 7th District in the 2022 midterm election. Van Epps won about 97,000 votes, down from roughly 108,000 for Green three years ago. Green resigned in July.

“This suggests that the Democratic base is motivated and enthusiastic, but will that be sustainable over the next year?” Bednarczuk said.

Testing messages

The Tennessee election also provided a glimpse into the campaign messaging of both parties and allied super-PACs. Both Van Epps and Behn emphasized affordability, a paramount issue for voters concerned about the rising cost of living. A Behn ad invoked Trump’s tariffs.

Van Epps campaigned as a Trump ally and portrayed Behn as a “radical” liberal, though Republicans in swing districts won’t have Van Epps’ luxury of running in lockstep with the president in a GOP bastion like Tennessee’s 7th District.

“In closer districts, they’re going to have to broaden that message from just, ‘It’s a bad Democrat, and I want to support President Trump,’” Syler said. “They’re going to have to find something else to sell.”