The 2024 Senate elections will test how well some of the Democratic Party’s most durable incumbents perform on a Republican-friendly map.
Democrats are the defending party in 23 of the 34 Senate elections, including in eight states that President Joe Biden lost or only narrowly won in 2020.
At stake: control of one of the levers of government; a final say on lifetime jobs as judges; and power over much of the next president’s agenda, including whether tax rate cuts for individuals are allowed to expire at the end of 2025.
In the swing states, plus Republican-leaning Montana and Ohio, Democrats’ hope of keeping their majority may hinge on convincing tens of thousands of Republican presidential voters to vote for the person rather than the party and continue bucking the trend of single-party delegations.
- Read the latest BGOV OnPoint: Run or Retire? These Senators Haven’t Yet Said
The most vulnerable Senate incumbents seeking re-election so far are Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.), according to nonpartisan analysts. They are also the only statewide elected Democrats left in their states. With Republicans likely to criticize votes for Biden’s major initiatives, Tester and Brown have recently tried to put some distance between themselves and the White House.
Democrats are also trying to fend off serious Republican takeover bids in five states that Biden won by fewer than three percentage points in 2020 — Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Greg Giroux has a state-by-state breakdown.
BIDEN’S AGENDA
- The president will meet with mayors attending the U.S. Conference of Mayors Winter Meeting at the White House around 3:45 p.m.
- Biden will leave around 5:45 p.m. for Rehoboth Beach, Del.
CONGRESS’ SCHEDULE
- The House and Senate are out.
- For more details, read BGOV’s Congress Tracker.
Also Happening on the Hill
CONGRESS cleared a temporary spending bill to avert a partial shutdown this weekend for Biden’s signature. But conservative hard-liners were quick to denounce the bill.
- The interim measure would finance some agencies — set to run out of money after today — through March 1 and others through March 8. The House voted 314 to 108 yesterday to pass the short-term funding just hours after the Senate approved it.
- Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) rebuffed a last-minute effort by ultraconservative Republicans in the House Freedom Caucus to scuttle the legislation by adding demands on immigration policy changes anathema to many Democrats. Read more.
LLOYD AUSTIN has been asked to testify Feb. 14 before the House Armed Services Committee during a hearing about the Defense secretary’s failure to disclose his hospitalization. Read more.
THE USE OF WEAPONS and the US industrial defense base that produced many of the weapons in the war in Ukraine will be the focus of the Senate Armed Services Committee central to writing DOD policy, the panel leaders said. Read more.
APPROVING a White House request of $2.16 billion for nuclear fuel enrichment—paired with a ban on Russian uranium—is crucial to standing up the US supply chain, the Energy Department’s top nuclear energy official told Congress. Read more.
JOHNSON & JOHNSON accused Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) of retaliating against the company and others that sued the Biden administration to stop a program to negotiate how much Medicare pays for high-cost drugs. Read more.
SEN. CHUCK GRASSLEY has been discharged from the hospital after being treated for an infection. The 90-year-old Iowa Republican expects to return to work next week, according to a release issued by his office. Read more.
People, Power, and Politics
DONALD TRUMP called on the Supreme Court to clear him to run for president in a case that has become an historic test of the Constitution’s insurrection clause—and has the potential to alter the course of the 2024 election.
- In a filing with the high court yesterday, Trump said the Colorado Supreme Court overstepped when it barred him from the ballot because of his efforts to overturn Biden’s 2020 election win and his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. Read more.
HUNTER BIDEN is scheduled to appear for a Feb. 28 closed-door deposition over his overseas business activities, which are at the center of House Republicans’ impeachment inquiry into his presidential father as the 2024 campaign heats up. Read more.
RUDY GIULIANI may soon find out how far Chapter 11 bankruptcy can go in sheltering him from overwhelming legal bills.
- The onetime prosecutor is scheduled to make his first appearance today in New York bankruptcy court, where he has asked a judge’s permission to challenge the $148 million judgment that drove him to seek protection from creditors. Read more.
LOBBYISTS pushing for the $80 billion bipartisan deal worked out to renew a slate of business tax credits say the debate may offer guidance about what strategies and pressure points work on lawmakers ahead of a larger tax fight next year. Read more.
DEAN PHILLIPS, the Minnesota congressman pursuing a long-shot challenge to Biden for the Democratic presidential nomination, urged the US to take a softer approach toward China. Read more.
FANI WILLIS is looking to block a demand that the Fulton County District Attorney testify in the divorce case of Nathan Wade, a private attorney she hired to handle the election-conspiracy charges in Georgia against Trump and 18 allies. Read more.
What Else We’re Watching
BIDEN is forgiving nearly $5 billion in additional student debt for almost 74,000 borrowers as the administration seeks to deliver on one of his signature initiatives with high stakes for his 2024 reelection campaign. Read more.
AMERICA is seeing more of its most fertile land snapped up by China and other foreign buyers, yet issues with how the US tracks that data—as uncovered by a nonpartisan watchdog—means it’s difficult to know just how much. Read more.
THE GULF STATES of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar together with Israel’s neighbors Egypt and Jordan are quietly touting a settlement for postwar Gaza for which they’ve secured the backing of the US. The problem is that the Israelis on whom the agreement depends aren’t buying it. Read more.
HOUTHI MILITANTS in Yemen fired missiles at an American-owned commercial vessel yesterday, the same day Biden acknowledged US airstrikes have not halted the Red Sea attacks. Read more.
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