The White House is angling its midterm election strategy to focus on Democrats’ biggest vulnerabilities leading into November.
Earlier this month, President Donald Trump announced his deputy chief of staff, James Blair, would temporarily step aside from his duties to help Republicans hold onto their narrow majorities in a challenging election year. He expects to return to the White House after the elections.
The administration is planning to go negative by portraying Democrats as weak on immigration enforcement and supporting tax increases. The White House believes Democrats have a branding problem, with polling showing more than half of Americans find the party unfavorable.
“We need to push the whole Democrat Party into the corner with their very low approval ratings, where people don’t like them, and exploit the fact that people trust Republicans more on the issues that they’re voting on,” Blair told Bloomberg Government.
The approach allows the administration to shift away from voter concerns about the high cost of living, mass deportations, and war in Iran, which has caused Trump’s recent polling numbers to drop.
Trump’s political operation is focused on painting the GOP as the party of border security and public safety, while also heavily promoting its tax cuts.
A GOP strategist with ties to Trump said tax policy will be a strong part of the overall GOP campaign. The strategist expects Republicans to not only take credit for extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts as part of last year’s budget package, but also claim Democrats championed tax increases.
Republicans are also being encouraged to downplay Democratic wins in one-off special elections this spring.
For example, the GOP says the party only narrowly lost a voter referendum in Virginia this week that will allow partisan maps drawn by Democrats to be used in the midterm elections.
A Key Link
Blair remains widely viewed on Capitol Hill and K Street as a critical pipeline to Trump as one of his most trusted advisers.
In a Truth Social Post, Trump credited Blair in helping his 2024 victory over Kamala Harris by focusing heavily on the economy.
Jeff Miller, who leads Miller Strategies, one of Washington’s top lobbying firms, said Blair is “one of the main common threads” between the White House’s successes and Trump’s campaign.
“Deploying him like this shows how seriously the President is taking the midterms,” Miller said of Blair. “Although he is a key go-between for the White House and Capitol Hill, he isn’t going far, and I expect will still serve the President in that way.”
Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), who is on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s target list, said Blair will be an asset for the midterms because of his campaign and grassroots experience.
“Historically, we should lose the midterms, but I think we have a good shot at keeping it with the economy turning around and James Blair leading us,” Ogles said.
Blair has also helped prevent risky primary battles behind the scenes.
In the Alabama Senate race, for example, Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.) said Blair was influential in helping him secure Trump’s endorsement.
Blair has also been credited with discouraging ESPN college football analyst Paul Finebaum from entering the race, which could have led to a potential messy primary fight for a seat Republicans are almost guaranteed to win.
“He was key in helping the president get to know us,” Moore said.
Republicans have cleared most of their main primary fights in the House and Senate, while Democrats have seen more contentious intrapartycontests — another issue GOP operatives have sought to play up.
Republicans are closely monitoring Democratic primary fights for Colorado’s open seat in the 8th District and a crowded party contest in New York’s 17th District to challenge Rep. Mike Lawler. In the Senate, Democrats are also seeing ideological primaries in Michigan and Maine.
Democrats Counter on Economy, War
Democrats have countered by attacking the GOP on inflation and rising gas prices driven by the Iran war.
The DCCC, along with the Senate Democrats’ campaign arms, have circulated polling that shows the GOP cuts to social programs as unpopular and have also tried to tie Republicans to spiking health care costs.
DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.) said Democrats should adopt messages that best fit their district, but as a whole, the party is seeking to tap into the economic anxieties.
“We’ve seen the administration come out over and over trying to tell people how to feel,” DelBene said. “The reality is that people across the country are struggling. Affordability is a huge issue.”
Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio), who is in a highly competitive reelection race, said while he believes Democrats have an edge this cycle, the party needs to do more than anti-Trump messaging.
“Some of the most energizing conversations I have are around where we go from here, and how we tackle our biggest issues,” Landsman said. “More and more folks are ready for what’s next, and how we get there.”
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