Sexual Assault Allegations Upend Race for California Governor

Eric Swalwell’s swift political downfall has roiled the Democratic party in California, adding more uncertainty to an already tumultuous race to lead the most populous US state.

Now, rivals are hoping that Swalwell’s exit from the contest will be enough to help break a Democratic deadlock that has offered Republicans a chance at securing the governor’s seat for the first time in two decades.

“Everybody thinks it’s up for grabs, because it is,” said Steven Maviglio, a Democratic campaign consultant. “This news grabbed voters’ attention and they’ll start focusing more on the race.”

Representative Eric Swalwell

Photographer: Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg

Even before multiple allegations of sexual misconduct forced the 45-year-old US Representative to suspend his gubernatorial campaign and led the House Ethics Committee to open an investigation on him on Monday, the Democratic field in California was splintered.

With eight candidates and no commanding frontrunner, Swalwell had pulled into second place in an average of recent polls, narrowly trailing Republican candidate Steve Hilton, a former Fox News commentator, according to RealClear Polling. Under California election rules, the top two performers in a June primary advance to the November runoff, regardless of party affiliation — with some polls showing a slim, but significant chance of a two-Republican match.

That possibility has now diminished said Paul Mitchell, a campaign data analyst who works for Democrats and runs an election simulator.

“The tool suggests we flip from being a small possibility of a R versus R to now a 13% chance of D versus D when Swalwell is out of the race,” Mitchell said. Billionaire activist Tom Steyerand former US Representative Katie Porter stand to gain the most from Swalwell’s debacle, according to Mitchell.

Swalwell, a seven-term congressman from the San Francisco Bay area, had emerged as one of the top Democrats to succeed Gavin Newsom, who is barred from seeking re-election because of term limits.

More high-profile Democratis names, like former vice-president Kamala Harris and Senator Alex Padilla, passed on the race, leaving it crowded with lesser-known contestants like Porter, Steyer, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and former US Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra.

Mahan, whose bid is being backed by a cohort of Silicon Valley billionaires and has struggled to gain traction, is also seeing a fresh opening. “Obviously this is a total shakeup,” said Tasha Dean a spokesperson for Mahan’s campaign. “It entirely changes the race.”

Swalwell’s campaign started to unravel shortly after the San Francisco Chronicle reported on Friday that a former Swalwell aide told the newspaper he twice sexually assaulted her when she was too intoxicated to consent. CNN also reported that four women described sexual misconduct by Swalwell.

The allegations prompted a swift reaction, with top Democrats and financial backers quickly turning on him. On Sunday, Swalwell announced he was suspending his bid.

“I am suspending my campaign for governor,” Swalwell said in a post on social media. He apologized to his supporters, adding “I will fight the serious, false allegations that have been made — but that’s my fight, not a campaign’s.”

Swalwell faces a criminal investigation from Manhattan prosecutors and more than 50 staff members and former staff members called on him to resign.

Senior Democrats, including House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senator Adam Schiff, called on him to drop out. Representative Ro Khanna asked for law enforcement and House ethics investigations. The political action committee supporting Swalwell’s campaign, Californians for a Fighter, suspended its activities and the California Labor Federation — a group representing more than two million workers — withdrew its support.

In his statement on Sunday, Swalwell didn’t address calls for him to resign from Congress.

Swalwell had built a profile as one of President Donald Trump’s loudest critics, helping manage his second impeachment proceedings in 2021 and appearing regularly on TV and social media to campaign on that record. Swalwell also briefly mounted a White House run but dropped out in 2019 after failing to gain momentum. He announced his bid for governor during a November appearance on Jimmy Kimmel Live!

Before running for office, Swalwell worked as deputy district attorney in Alameda County in the Bay Area, serving as the office’s lead hate crimes prosecutor. He was elected to a local city council in 2010 before winning his congressional seat in 2012.

With early voting beginning just weeks away on May 4 before the June 2 primary, it remains unclear which, if any, candidate will be able to galvanize Swalwell’s supporters.

“Unfortunately, the statutory deadline has passed to remove Swalwell’s name from the ballot,” said Rusty Hicks, chairman of the California Democratic Party, in a statement after Swalwell suspended his campaign, calling on people to make sure “he receives as little support as possible at the ballot box”

Hicks also reiterated his calls for candidates to drop out if they have no viable chance to win.

“In fact, that call is more important now than ever before,” he said.

Democrat Betty Yee, a former state controller who’s polling in low single digits, says Swalwell’s woes could give voters a pretext to reconsider her.

“The obsession with who looks the part almost got us an alleged sexual predator in Sacramento — ignoring the reality we need to actually fix our fraught state,” Yee said on Monday. “I’m not flashy, and I don’t ‘look the part’ of what the talking heads think wins. But whether it’s the big ticket items or the less glamorous work, I get things done.”

--With assistance from Laura Davison.

To contact the reporters on this story:
John Gittelsohn in Los Angeles at johngitt@bloomberg.net;
Eliyahu Kamisher in San Francisco at ekamisher@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Sarah McGregor at smcgregor5@bloomberg.net

Felipe Marques, Wendy Benjaminson

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