Democrats’ Midterm Math Takes Hit as Court Axes Virginia Map (2)

Democrats were dealt a blow in their efforts to minimize Republican redistricting gains around the US when the Virginia Supreme Court on Friday blocked a voter-approved map that would have flipped as many as four GOP-held US House seats in November’s midterm elections.

In a 4-3 decision, the state’s highest court ruled on Friday that the legislature’s process for pursuing the new map violated Virginia’s Constitution and ordered that an earlier version be used in the upcoming midterm elections. Virginia said it will appeal to the US Supreme Court.

The decision marks a significant milestone in an escalating effort by Republicans and Democrats to maximize partisan advantages ahead of the November vote by redrawing congressional districts. The Virginia plan, backed by state Democratic leaders including Governor Abigail Spanberger, came in response to a redistricting effort by Republicans that started in Texas last year but had seemingly ended last month in a stalemate.

Virginia Attorney General Jay Jones said in a statement that his office is evaluating “every legal pathway forward.”

“This decision silences the voices of the millions of Virginians who cast their ballots in every corner of the Commonwealth, and it fuels the growing fears across our nation about the state of our democracy,” Jones said. The state asked the Virginia Supreme Court to delay finalizing the ruling to allow for an appeal to the nation’s highest court.

Longshot Bid

Virginia’s US Supreme Court bid is likely to be a longshot given that Friday’s ruling was based on the state constitution. The US Supreme Court can intervene only on issues of federal law, such as a claim that the US Constitution’s equal protection clause was violated.

“I see no formal way to get there, and also no realistic possibility that the court would want to intervene even if it could,” said Steve Vladeck, a constitutional law professor at Georgetown Law Center. The high court has a 6-3 conservative majority.

It’s unusual for states to redraw maps in the middle of a decade because they are usually changed in response to a new US Census, but that all changed last August when Texas lawmakers moved to redraw their state’s voting boundaries in a way that created five GOP-leaning districts. Democrat-dominated California then countered with their own map to mute that advantage and states from Missouri to Florida continued the trend.

Virginia’s current congressional delegation features six Democrats and five Republicans. Under the proposed map, Republicans were favored to win in only one district.

‘Huge Win’

Republicans quickly praised the ruling, with President Donald Trump calling it a “huge win for the Republican Party, and America,” in an online post.

Virginia Senate Republican Leader Ryan McDougle, who led the legal challenge, said in a statement that Friday’s ruling “affirms what we all know: You cannot violate the Constitution to change the Constitution.”

The decision also comes in the wake of an April 29 US Supreme Court ruling that weakened key provisions of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. That prompted Republicans in several southern states, including Tennessee and Louisiana, to start redrawing their maps in order to pick up a handful of seats in the November election.

In South Carolina, the senate will debate next week whether to extend their session to take up a proposal that would redraw the state’s one Democratic district, held by influential Representative Jim Clyburn.

Even with the Virginia ruling and the moves to change voting boundaries by other states, several analysts said Democrats will remain favored to retake the House in November, though by a narrower margin. And with Trump’s approval ratings at a historic low, districts redrawn to favor Republicans are not necessarily guaranteed wins for the GOP — a concern some lawmakers in Florida raised during their recent redistricting debate.

Political Environment

The new GOP-friendly maps and the Virginia decision “can’t change the political environment,” according to Amy Walter at the Cook Political Report. Ahead of the court decision, the publication rated 192 House races as “Solid D”, 183 as “Solid R”, and 16 as “Toss Ups.”

That said, the Virginia case will bolster Republicans and make it harder for Democrats to get the 218 seats they need to control the House.

In its ruling, Virginia’s top court concluded that the legislature failed to comply with a requirement that a state general election take place in between two separate votes by lawmakers on proposed constitutional amendments. When lawmakers first met to consider the redistricting amendment in October last year, early voting for the November election was already underway. That prompted the majority of the justices to conclude that the rules weren’t followed.

The state’s constitution purposefully “slow-walks” the amendment process to give voters an opportunity during the “intervening” period to weigh in, Justice D. Arthur Kelsey wrote for the majority. The court rejected Democrats’ stance that the legislature’s process was valid because the first vote happened before the formal Election Day in November.

“While the Commonwealth is free by its lights to do the right thing for the right reason, the Rule of Law requires that it be done the right way,” Kelsey wrote.

The majority acknowledged in its opinion that it might face public criticism for issuing this decision after Virginians had voted on the new map, but noted that the Commonwealth’s lawyers had advocated for waiting until after the referendum took place.

Chief Justice Cleo Powell dissented along with two of her colleagues, writing that the majority’s decision to include early voting in the meaning of “election” was “in direct conflict with how both Virginia and federal law define” the term.

Spanberger said in a social media post that she was disappointed in the ruling, adding that “my focus as Governor will be on ensuring that all voters have the information necessary to make their voices heard this November in the midterm elections because in those elections we — the voters — will have the final say.”

The case is McDougle v. Scott, 260127, Virginia Supreme Court.

(Updates to reflect planned Supreme Court appeal starting in second paragraph.)

--With assistance from Josh Wingrove, Steven T. Dennis and Greg Stohr.

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