Recession Chatter Is Getting Louder. Here’s What to Watch

The US economy entered 2025 on solid footing, but President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs have thrown a wrench into the outlook. Many economists forecast the new levies will slow growth and boost inflation—and possibly push up unemployment too. We’ve assembled a diverse set of indicators to help you assess where things are headed.

Why the Concern

Trump’s whiplash-inducing trade actions have roiled markets and sown uncertainty. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg now put the odds of a US recession in the next year at almost 50-50. Americans’ views on the economy have soured, and some businesses have reported pausing ...