Southeast Asia Emerges as Surprise Winner in US-China Trade Spat

December 10, 2025, 11:30 AM UTC

Southeast Asia has emerged as a surprise beneficiary from global trade turmoil, with the region’s exports to the US growing at a faster pace than heavyweight rival China, according to a Lowy Institute analysis.

Exports from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which comprises 11 countries, to the US surged by 23% in September from a year earlier, led by Thailand and Vietnam, Lowy said in a report released Wednesday. By contrast, China’s share has declined.

While the effective US tariff rate on China has jumped to 31%, it’s only around 11% for many Asean countries, Lowy economists led by ...

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