Tariff refund trade
What is the probability that the US Supreme Court will strike down President Donald Trump’s broad tariffs? There are a number of ways of thinking about that question. One is what you might call legal analysis: You can look at the text of the US Constitution and the relevant statutes, as well as relevant legal precedents, and try to figure out whether the tariffs are legal or not. If they seem very illegal, then the probability that the Supreme Court will strike them down is high; if they seem very legal, low; if the law is genuinely ambiguous ...