House GOP Risks Losing All Black Representation in Midterms (1)

A retirement wave and a fight for the majority threaten to leave House Republicans without any Black members in 2027, unwinding the party’s progress just four years after reaching record representation.

All four current Black House Republicans are heading for the exits after this year— Rep. Burgess Owens (Utah) to retire and Reps. Wesley Hunt (Texas), Byron Donalds (Fla.) and John James (Mich.) to run statewide. They’re among more than 30 House Republicans departing Congress at the end of this year.

The House members have been influential voices as Republicans seek to showcase a more diverse party and win voters in coalitions beyond their heavily White base. This year’s midterm elections will test whether the GOP can maintain the party’s 2024 progress with non-White voters without President Donald Trump‘s name at the top of the ballot.

None of the leading candidates to replace the broad slate of GOP retirees are Black, according to a Bloomberg Government analysis. That means barring an unexpected upset, House Republicans’ chance of having any Black lawmakers come January hinges on whether they can oust Democratic incumbents in swing districts in California, Michigan, New Jersey, and Ohio where their leading challengers are Black.

“It’s important to see that we have actually a diverse group of candidates, a diverse group of members that currently serve now in a diverse party overall,” said Ohio state Rep. Josh Williams, a Republican running to unseat Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D), who’s served in Congress since 1983.

The 2022 midterm elections that swept Republicans back into the majority also led to a record with four Black House Republicans and one Black Senate Republican, Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.), serving together — the most in over a century. They’re ideologically diverse, including a key member of the hard-right Freedom Caucus and more mainstream Republicans.

GOP leaders have pointed to racially diverse lawmakers as evidence they’re in step with Americans beyond the White men who traditionally dominated the party. But not all the Black Republicans see their racial backgrounds as particularly relevant.

“The fact that we have four Black men, that’s great,” said Hunt, but “I could really care less if there’s one Black person, 10 Black people, zero, 20, as long as we have good conservative values.”

Black Voters and Trump

Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) prioritized racial diversity and a variety of backgrounds when recruiting candidates to run for the House, ushering in Owens and Donalds in 2021, then James and Hunt in 2023.

But Republicans have largely shifted away from noting that representation, even as they’ve broadly touted Trump’s success with Black voters—and particularly young Black men—in his successful 2024 campaign.

Most Black voters overall still supported Democrats, but the movement of minority groups helped Republicans win the White House and both chambers of Congress. Fifteen percent of Black non-Hispanic voters supported Trump in 2024, according to a Pew Research Center survey, compared to 8% in 2020 and 6% in 2016. More than one-fifth of Black men in the survey reported voting for Trump in 2024.

“You’re seeing more people from the inner city, more people of color, joining the conservative movement and the Republican Party and choosing to run for office,” said Amir Hassan, a Black military veteran from Flint, Mich., who’s running to oust freshman Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet.

Hassan said Americans should focus less on the number of Black Republicans in Congress and more on the amount of Black voters turning toward the party. He warned against “identity politics,” which “we’re pushing away from in the Republican conservative movement.”

Speaker Mike Johnson said his party is still recruiting diverse candidates.

“Working hand-in-hand with President Trump and Chairman Hudson, we are recruiting exceptional candidates who will bring diverse backgrounds and experiences to Congress and help House Republicans continue saving America,” Johnson said in a statement to Bloomberg Government. He touted the party’s midterm candidates, from “veterans, to law enforcement officers, professional athletes, a former governor, small business owners, moms, and second-generation Americans.”

Competitive Races

New Jersey attorney Tiffany Burress is running in the district held by Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou, while former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln is challenging Democratic Rep. Adam Gray in California. Lincoln is one of nine candidates on the National Republican Congressional Committee’s initial “MAGA Majority” list of top challengers for 2026.

The four Democrats likely facing Black GOP challengers all won reelection in 2024 by single digits.

Republicans have made broader strides in diverse representation, with 14 Hispanic GOP lawmakers serving in Congress, according to the Office of the Historian, including influential appropriators and committee chairs. Five Republicans are also Asian American or Pacific Islanders, including two voting lawmakers and three delegates, according to the Office of the Historian. As recently as 2015 the party had no AAPI lawmakers in its conference.

The GOP is working to avoid losing ground in the midterms among voting blocs where the party gained support in 2024.

Democrats’ bid to retake the House majority could hinge on peeling away those gains. Reeling from their sweeping 2024 losses, Democrats have focused on affordability policies and messaging, and argue a fixation on lowering costs will help them win back Black, Latino, and Asian voters.

“We’re targeting all the groups in every single different way we can, to make sure we are talking to them and they know what we stand for and that we are going to deliver for them,” said Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), who leads the House Democratic Policy and Communications Committee. House Democrats at their annual retreat last month cited proposals like building affordable housing as popular policies that could play well with working-class voters across racial groups.

The threat to the GOP’s Black representation stands in contrast with Democrats, who’ve continued to grow their ranks of minority members over the past several years, with 60 Black House lawmakers currently serving in the party. If Democrats retake the House majority in 2026, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) is well-positioned to become the first Black speaker in history.

Michael Fauntroy, a political scientist who wrote the book “Republicans and the Black Vote,” said the GOP is basing its midterm expectations on “a significant overestimation of what happened in 2024.” Fauntroy said he expects there won’t be a single Black Republican in the House next year.

“Because the bench is so thin, there are long periods in which there isn’t very much representation,” Fauntroy said.

Even if that comes to pass, Republicans see signs of progress. The GOP candidates seeking to flip districts in the 2026 midterm elections noted that three of the Black Republicans leaving the House this year are doing so to seek governorships or Senate seats.

“It’s unfortunate that many of our Black congressmen are running for other offices, but they are trying to continue the trend of going back and putting representation in as governors of their states or running for the Senate,” said Williams, the Ohio Republican. “There’s more young candidates that are coming up to fill the void.”