These GOP Wild Cards Could Shake the Race to Replace McConnell

Everyone watching the Senate has heard about the “Three Johns.” But keep an eye out for Steve, Rick, Tom, and maybe others.

Senior Republican Sens. John Thune (S.D.), 63, John Cornyn (Texas), 72, and John Barrasso (Wyo.), 71, have long been viewed as the leading potential successors to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).

Earlier coverage:

• McConnell’s Illness Intensifies Quiet Scramble For Who’s Next
• Senators Eyeing McConnell’s Post Have Spent Millions Networking

But after McConnell, 82, announced Wednesday that he’ll leave his longtime leadership post at the end of the year, Senate insiders expect other ambitious Republicans to also join the field, especially given the tug-of-war between mostly older, traditional conservatives and a new generation aligned with former President Donald Trump’s style of politics.

Here are some of the less-discussed senators seen as potential rivals to the three contenders named John, or who might seek out other leadership slots as change comes to the conference’s upper reaches.

Sen. Steve Daines (Mont.): He already has a leadership role as chair of the GOP’s Senate campaign arm, and he’s off to a fast start. Daines, 61, scored major recruiting victories in key battleground races, including by recently luring former Maryland GOP Gov. Larry Hogan into a Senate race that would normally have been a breeze for Democrats.

So far Daines has managed to bridge the chasm between McConnell, the GOP’s top Senate strategist, and Trump, its most influential and volatile figure. That could serve him well in a conference torn between Republican factions. And if they win back the Senate, Daines will have a major victory under his belt, along with close ties to the freshmen he’s trying to elect.

On Thursday, Trump reportedly urged Daines to get into the race.

But Daines is relatively new to leadership, and the outcome in November is far from certain. If Republicans come up short on a favorable Senate map, it would undercut his standing.

Sen. Rick Scott (Fla.): The former Florida governor already took one shot at leadership, when he challenged McConnell in 2022. While he might not have the same MAGA credentials as some younger senators, that run did give him notoriety as a thorn in the side of the GOP’s old guard.

Scott, 71, called McConnell’s departure “an opportunity to refocus our efforts on solving the significant challenges facing our country and actually reflect the aspirations of voters.” But he has demurred, so far, about running again.

Working against him is Scott’s tenure leading the GOP’s Senate campaign in 2022. Republicans fielded several weak candidates, Scott’s policy outline became fodder for Democratic attacks, and the GOP failed to win the majority, despite a political atmosphere that appeared tilted in their favor.

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (W. Va.): She’s the fifth-ranking Republican, just behind McConnell and the “Three Johns,” so Capito already has a role guiding the conference. If she won the top job she’d make history as the first female leader in the Senate, something Republicans might welcome considering their struggles with female voters.

Capito, 70, would bring extensive legislative experience: She’s been in politics since joining the West Virginia state legislature in 1997.

Asked about replacing McConnell Capito said, “I wouldn’t say that’s on my top 10 list,” but that other leadership positions are “certainly something I would look at.”

Another woman in Republican leadership, Sen. Joni Ernst (Iowa), has also been mentioned, but has reportedly signaled she won’t seek the No. 1 job.

Sen. Tom Cotton (Ark.): The former Army Ranger would be a more combative figure than the “Johns,” and, at 46, would represent a generational shift.

He’s aligned with hard-right conservatives, but also predates the Trump era, having come to Congress as a House member in 2013. Whether he has the personal connections within the Senate to win a deeply personal race is a question. Going to the top of the chain might be a big leap, but at his age Cotton could also seek a lower-level leadership slot and have time to climb the ranks.

Sen. Mike Lee (Utah): He’d be a true wild-card entry. Lee, 52, likes to rail against what he calls “the firm” of traditional congressional leaders, lumping Democratic and Republican honchos together in one blob. Would he try to break them up by joining them?

Lee’s hardball approach, though, might not have won him many friends in the Senate, and he might be happier as a relative outsider throwing bricks at the establishment.