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Donald Trump is facing “a vise grip of his own making.”
Oil shocks have derailed the president’s hopes for an easy victory in Iran — and the ripple effects could last well beyond the war’s end.
- “He’s being forced to reconcile increasingly contradictory goals: total victory against Iran, and avoiding extreme, lasting damage to energy infrastructure that could reverberate through the global economy for years,” Ben Bartenstein, Jennifer A. Dlouhy, and Samy Adghirni write.
An emboldened Trump had so much success with quick-strike military operations in his second term (in Iran last summer, in Nigeria, in Venezuela) that he appears to have dramatically underestimated the time, effort, and cost that a much larger attack would entail.
And the costs are mounting: his administration is seeking $200 billion from Congress to fund the war. It would be the largest supplemental spending bill since the pandemic relief passed in 2020.
Also Read: Cuban Envoy Says Current Leaders Will Remain Despite US Pressure
Meanwhile, energy markets continue their jittery response to each day’s attacks. Problems moving tankers around the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of an angry Iran were predictable. And yet the response has seemed decidedly ad hoc, with Trump calling on allies to aid ship traffic and then saying he doesn’t need any help.
- “President Trump and his entire energy team were not ignorant of the reality that there would be short-term disruptions to oil and gas supply during the ongoing operations in Iran,” White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said. “They planned for these highly anticipated, temporary disruptions.”
But energy experts said even if the war ends soon, the damage to oil and natural gas facilities could take months to remedy. If so, higher gasoline prices could linger perilously close to the midterm elections.
Now Read This
Powell Probe: Trump is believed to be supporting the continued federal investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, even after a court blocked subpoenas in the case. Instead of taking the off ramp, the move is likely to further delay Kevin Warsh’s confirmation to the Fed.
Back Sliding: Republicans have aimed for a more diverse House membership, more reflective of the country. But all four of the Black GOP house members are now retiring or running for other offices, Maeve Sheehey reports.
Courting MAGA Voters: Rep. Ro Khanna says exposing elite impunity, opposing Middle East wars, and taxing extreme wealth could unite progressives with disaffected Trump voters. Read his interview with Bloomberg’s Mishal Husain.
SpaceX to the Moon: NASA is revising its moon-landing plans, reducing Boeing’s role while elevating SpaceX’s Starship rocket to do the job of propelling astronauts to lunar orbit, people familiar with the matter said.
Working for the Weekend: Do you work as much as a lawyer? A Bloomberg Law survey found that the average was a little over 50 hours a week last year. The survey also found that partners who don’t get equity (read: $$) in their firms are less satisfied than those who do.
NFL Wide Open: Want to know how the NFL really hires coaches? We might get some insight thanks to a lawsuit from coaches alleging discrimination. A judge’s ruling the case can go forward in federal court instead of behind closed doors in arbitration will open the door to the public and raises the stakes for the NFL, attorney Masood Ali writes in a commentary piece.
Watch This
“It takes money to kill bad guys” — Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, speaking to reporters about a potential supplemental spending request for the Iran war.
Eye on the Economy
So far, the spring home-selling season is off to a soft start, despite some easing in 30-year mortgage rates.
Sales of new US homes in January fell to the lowest since 2022, reflecting a pullback in buyer demand across the country.
- “Survey data from the NAHB suggest that roughly 37% of builders are lowering base prices, with average reductions of about 6%,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Drew Reading reports. That data doesn’t include sales incentives.
What’s Next
Next week we’re likely to get confirmation of Markwayne Mullin’s nomination to lead DHS, and we may get a vote on the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. Plus:
Monday:
- CERAWeek, the energy industry’s big annual confab, kicks off in Houston. Expect a bit of discussion around Iran and Venezuela
- Construction spending in the US for January will be reported
Tuesday:
- Start of the Hill and Valley Forum, which combines lawmakers and tech leaders in DC
- Anthropic gets its first court hearing in San Francisco after challenging its designation as a US supply-chain risk
- SCOTUS hears arguments on asylum seekers at the US-Mexico border
Wednesday:
- The House Committee on Homeland Security will hold a hearing “assessing the harmful impacts of the DHS shutdown on Americans”
- The Committee on Financial Services will hold a hearing entitled, “Tokenization and the Future of Securities: Modernizing Our Capital Markets”
- The Senate Budget Committee will hold a full committee hearing discussing Social Security
- Import and export prices in February will be released
Thursday:
- G-7 foreign ministers meet in Paris for two days
- Ex-President Nicolas Maduro and his wife return to a NY court for a pretrial hearing
Friday:
- The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment in March will be published
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- Congress Tracker for in-depth news from Capitol Hill
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