When President-elect Donald Trump takes office at noon today, he’ll be at the zenith of his power since he burst on the political scene ten years ago. But the honeymoon may be short-lived as the clock immediately begins ticking on his second — and final — term.
Trump returns to the White House fueled by one of the most stunning comebacks in American political history, surviving 34 felony convictions, two assassination attempts, and three investigations for absconding with classified documents and trying to overturn his 2020 election loss.
While Trump may have defied political gravity, he could have as little as two years to deliver on a litany of promises made to voters. If Republicans lose power in the 2026 midterms, as history suggests they will, Trump will have just 652 days to pass historic tax cuts, carry out the largest deportations of undocumented immigrants in US history, impose new tariffs, and take a wrecking ball to what he believes is a bloated federal workforce, before those already difficult tasks get much harder — and potentially impossible.
“Trump can decide to be president for two years or four years,” Grover Norquist, a well-known anti-tax activist who believes Trump needs to extend his 2017 tax cuts for the GOP to keep control of Congress, said in an interview with Bloomberg Government. “A pro-growth tax bill gets him to be president for four years.”
Turning Trump’s agenda into reality is complicated by the razor-thin majority Republicans hold in the House. With a four-vote edge over Democrats — and just one more than the 218 required to pass legislation — Speaker Mike Johnson inherits the smallest majority in nearly a century.
“We’ve got two years to make things happen,” said Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.), a member of the Ways and Means Committee. “You never know, we might break history”.
Trump is well-acquainted with the history of midterm elections for sitting presidents, having lost the House to Democrats in 2018, ending a Republican trifecta in Washington. Other recent presidents, such Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, suffered even bigger losses, cementing the belief that the president’s party will inevitably take a beating.
Yet Trump is operating in a different landscape after being out of office for four years, and it remains to be seen whether the exceptional nature of his non-consecutive terms will disrupt that dynamic. But for now, both parties agree that he has a powerful mandate. The question is how long it lasts — and how well Trump manages that time.
“President Trump will quickly deliver on the promises he made when he returns to the White House,” incoming Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement, but did not elaborate.
Republicans are trying to make every moment count, meeting last week behind closed doors with Trump immigration adviser Stephen Miller, as well as discussing the beginning stages of tax reform.
Unlike the early days of Trump’s first term, which were marked by turmoil, the president-elect arrives with a seasoned team that has worked with him before, either in government or on one of his campaigns. His Chief of Staff, Susie Wiles, is a veteran political operative and lobbyist who has promised to instill order, in contrast to her predecessors who struggled to control staff.
There are early signs things might be different this time. Trump’s team began announcing nominees within days of the election, unlike the first time, when positions sat unfilled for weeks.
“There will not be any deferral — ‘hey, wait until my second show,’” Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) said, “You can already see it in how fast he’s named very capable people.”
Democrats, for their part, are taking a more cautious approach compared with Trump’s first term, mindful of the diverse coalition that brought him back to the White House. Unlike eight years ago, the party isn’t jumping to join the resistance.
“We’re a coequal branch of government,” said Rep. Eugene Vindman, (D-Va.) a freshman and former National Security Council attorney best known for his role in Trump’s first impeachment. “It’s our job to work with the president where it makes sense for the American people and constituents, and then where it doesn’t, exercise our authorities.”
Vindman and his twin brother alerted their superiors of the 2019 phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that led to Trump’s first impeachment.
He plans today to be at the Capitol as Trump is sworn in for a second time, a reminder of how voters overlooked Trump’s character defects and frequent rejection of democratic norms.
“It’s my duty,” he said. “I’m a member.”
Trump is only the second president in US history to win non-consecutive terms, and the first in more than a century. The first, Grover Cleveland, avenged his rival Benjamin Harrison in a decisive victory after Harrison beat him in 1888. But Cleveland’s party was annihilated in the 1894 midterms, and Cleveland never recovered.
The second-term president fell into a state of deep unpopularity, said Troy Senik, a former White House speechwriter who wrote a biography of Cleveland. One of Cleveland’s aides remarked that by the end of his time at the White House, he received less mail than an ordinary businessman, he said.
“The biggest lesson is how perishable presidential power is,” Senik said in an email. “Presidents often underestimate how quickly their political capital can decline.”
That day seems far off for Democrats, who for the time being have little to do but watch from the sidelines and hope Trump meets a similar fate to Cleveland.
“He’s got four years,” said Rep.
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